Nomura Instinet analyst Mark Kalinowski raised McDonald's Q1 US same-store sales forecast by 270 bps, to .8%, above consensus of down 1.1%, the highest forecast on the Street following a favorable franchisee survey. The analyst believes the focus on value and beverages, and the Big Mac line extensions helped McDonald's during a challenging time for the industry. Kalinowsky reiterated His Buy rating on McDonald's and increased his price target to $146 from $136 on shares.

Citi lowered the firm's price target on McDonald's to $297 from $312 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The analyst looked at the recent pullback in the shares as a potential opportunity to get more positive on McDonald's. However, while Citi thinks some of the recent pressure on shares came from faltering high-frequency data, it finds it hard to make a valuation-based or high-frequency data-driven case to own McDonald's shares ahead of a "rock and a hard case" Q1 earnings setup. If the company walks away from guidance for 3%-4% U.S. same-store-sales in 2024, it further biases estimate revisions down, and if it maintains it, optimistic guidance remains a bear case, the analyst tells investors in a research note.