JPMorgan analyst Anupam Rama points out that shares of Medivation (MDVN) are up 43% since the media speculated about a possible takeover at the end of March. The analyst's base case valuation range for a deal is $55-$60 per share. Rama's "very bull case" deal price range is $67-$75 per share. Medivation closed yesterday down $1.21 to $52.15. Rama believes, based on discussions with investors, that a deal taken to shareholders with a mid-$50s to $60s valuation would likely get done. The analyst assessed the potential impact to two possible European pharma bidders for Medivation - Sanofi (SNY) and AstraZeneca (AZN). It is unsurprising that Medivation has been mentioned as a takeover target since Xtandi is a "differentiated asset" and a deal would come with potential tax synergies, Rama tells investors in a research note.

Bearish flow noted in AstraZeneca with 3,362 puts trading, or 1.7x expected. Most active are 4/26 weekly 70 puts and May-24 70 calls, with total volume in those strikes near 3,600 contracts. The Put/Call Ratio is 1.72, while ATM IV is up nearly 2 points on the day. Earnings are expected on April 25th.

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