Goldman upgraded Monster Beverage (MNST) to Buy and increased its price target to $165 from $160. Analyst Judy Hong said Monster shares have underperformed the market since August, primarily due to issues with the distributor transition and uncertainty on the timing of cash returns. Hong views valuation as attractive ahead of Monster's entry into the China energy market in early 2016, which she believes could add 11c-27c to 2017 earnings. Further, the analyst is modeling a $5B tender announcement in early 2016, twice the amount the market is forecasting, following the close of the Coca-Cola (KO) deal. This is the key driver for Hong's above consensus 2016 earnings estimate of $4.20 versus $3.96.
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JPMorgan analyst Andrea Teixeira downgraded Monster Beverage to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $59, down from $66, ahead of the company's Q1 earnings report on May 8. While the shares have already sold off, there are limited catalysts to the upside at this point as "long-hoped for potential price increases somehow lost their attractiveness" due to the latest run up in aluminum prices and an already-stretched lower income consumer, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Moreover, the firm says Monster's tracked and untracked channel trends are still challenged and it appears that household penetration and buy rates are pressured.