In a research note titled "The Sky Is Not Falling," Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Lavery says he believes Altria Group can deliver double-digit earnings growth over the next three years, above its long-term 7%-9% growth target, driven by pricing, tax savings, share buybacks and falling interest expense. Lavery adds that while JUUL is enjoying rapid sales growth and is a noteworthy competitor, his analysis suggests it skews to lighter users and has less converted heavy smokers. The analyst lowered his price target for Altria to $75 from $81 and maintains an Overweight rating on the shares. Lavery trimmed his multiple but still sees "significant upside" in the shares.

The company said, "We reaffirm our 2024 full-year adjusted diluted EPS guidance range of $5.05 to $5.17, representing a growth rate of 2% to 4.5% from a base of $4.95 in 2023. We expect 2024 adjusted diluted EPS growth to be weighted to the second half of the year. Our guidance includes the impact of two additional shipping days in 2024 and assumes limited impact on combustible and e-vapor volumes from enforcement efforts in the illicit e-vapor market. While the 2024 full-year adjusted diluted EPS guidance accounts for a range of scenarios, the external environment remains dynamic. We will continue to monitor conditions related to (i) the economy, including the cumulative impact of inflation, (ii) adult tobacco consumer (ATC) dynamics, including purchasing patterns and adoption of smoke-free products, (iii) illicit e-vapor enforcement and (iv) regulatory, litigation and legislative developments. Our 2024 full-year adjusted diluted EPS guidance range includes planned investments in support of our Vision, such as (i) marketplace activities in support of our smoke-free products and (ii) continued smoke-free product research, development and regulatory preparation expenses. The 2024 full-year adjusted diluted EPS guidance range excludes an estimated per share gain of $1.17 related to the sale of the IQOS Tobacco Heating System commercialization rights that we expect to occur in the second quarter of 2024."

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