Goldman analyst Jami Rubin expects Merck (MRK) to trade up approximately $5 based on sentiment following AstraZeneca's MYSTIC failure as it partially de-risks longer-term estimates for Keytruda. As a result, the analyst raised Merck's Keytruda sales estimates by $600M in 2018 and $1B in 2019 and beyond, increasing earnings estimates by 14c-20c, and raising his price target on shares to $74 from $70. Rubin cautions that long-term estimates could be at risk if other competitor trials are successful. The analyst rates Merck a Neutral.

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FY24 consensus $8.56. Raises FY24 revenue view to $63.1B-$64.3B from $62.7B-$64.2B, consensus $63.83B.

Reports Q1 revenue $15.8B, consensus $15.2B. "Merck has begun 2024 with continuing momentum in our business. We are harnessing the power of innovation to advance our deep pipeline and are maximizing the impact of our broad commercial portfolio for the benefit of patients," said Robert Davis, chairman and chief executive officer, Merck. "We drove strong growth across key therapeutic areas, executed strategic business development, and in the U.S., we are now launching WINREVAIR, a significant new product in the cardiometabolic space for adults with pulmonary arterial hypertension, a progressive and debilitating disease. We have important opportunities ahead of us across all areas of our business, and we are highly focused on realizing them."

Consensus $4.56. Backs FY24 revenue view up low double-digit to low teens percentage, consensus $50.95B. Sees FY24 core tax rate 18%-22%.

Notable companies reporting before tomorrow's open, with earnings consensus, include Merck (MRK), consensus $1.87... Caterpillar (CAT), consensus $5.14... Comcast (CMSCA), consensus 99c... Honeywell (HON), consensus $2.17... Bristol-Myers (BMY), consensus ($4.44)... Altria (MO), consensus $1.15... Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP), consensus 35c... GE Vernova (GEV), consensus (37c)... Royal Caribbean (RCL), consensus $1.33... Tractor Supply (TSCO), consensus $1.72... Mobileye (MBLY), consensus (6c)... Textron (TXT), consensus $1.23... LabCorp (LH), consensus $3.48... Southwest Airlines (LUV), consensus (34c)... American Airlines (AAL), consensus (29c)... Harley-Davidson (HOG), consensus $1.51.

Bearish flow noted in AstraZeneca with 3,362 puts trading, or 1.7x expected. Most active are 4/26 weekly 70 puts and May-24 70 calls, with total volume in those strikes near 3,600 contracts. The Put/Call Ratio is 1.72, while ATM IV is up nearly 2 points on the day. Earnings are expected on April 25th.