Leerink analyst Seamus Fernandez upgraded Merck (MRK) to Outperform from Market Perform with an unchanged price target of $66. The shares closed Friday up 38c to $55.14. Keytruda will continue to dominate the first-line non-small cell lung cancer market, Fernandez tells investors in a research note. Following his firm's lung cancer survey, the analyst believes Merck will deliver upside to consensus Keytruda estimates along with positive earnings leverage in the second half of 2018 and 2019. He thinks KN-189 likely will show a clinically meaningful overall survival benefit for the Keytruda plus chemo combo in all patients, including a strong benefit in patients with moderate or low PD-L1 biomarker levels. Fernandez does not believe Bristol-Myers' (BMY) Opdivo and Yervoy combo will supplant Keytruda as the market leader. The analyst thinks now is the time to own shares of Merck.
Merck announced that the European Commission has approved Keytruda, Merck's anti-PD-1 therapy, in combination with platinum-containing chemotherapy as neoadjuvant treatment, then continued as monotherapy as adjuvant treatment, for resectable non-small cell lung cancer at high risk of recurrence in adults.
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BofA notes that Merck shares have been volatile as investors have contemplated various scenarios regarding the approval of sotatercept and its language, including "a lot of investor angst" given the risk for the FDA to issue either black box warnings, REMS, and/or monitoring requirement. However, sotatercept's approval in PAH with the brand name Winrevair "comes with a squeaky-clean label," without WHO functional class restriction or a need to be on background therapy, no black box and no REMS, which represents "the most bullish scenario," the analyst tells investors. The firm, which anticipates Merck shares to react favorably, maintains a Buy rating and $135 price target and sees upside to sotatercept's commercial outlook.
Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Merck to $135 from $130 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm notes WINREVAIR, or sotatercept, was approved with simple monitoring on the label, removing an overhang on the stock. $242k annual pricing is competitive and could enable the drug to move into earlier lines, and Wells now models $7B peak sales opportunity.