Citi analyst Keith Horowitz made seven rating changes in the U.S. Banks space after updating his estimates and target prices for a new base case rate forecast that more closely reflects the forward curve. This includes two interest rate cuts in 2019 and 2020. The analyst's terminal yield curve assumptions to Fed Funds is 1.75%. The lower rate assumptions led him to lower his normal return on tangible equity estimates ~100 basis points on average. Following these changes, Horowitz upgraded Morgan Stanley (MS) to Buy from Neutral), downgraded Comerica (CMA), Northern Trust (NTRS), and M&T Bank (MTB) to Sell from Neutral, and downgraded Wells Fargo (WFC), Citizens Financial (CFG), and Fifth Third (FITB) to Neutral from Buy.

Argus raised the firm's price target on Citizens Financial to $39 from $36 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its Q1 earnings beat. Regional bank shares have faced pressure since the failure of three regional banks amid higher deposit costs, commercial real estate exposure, and unrealized losses in the investment portfolio, but Citizens and other regional banks have adequately allayed these fears with their recent results, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citizens has also hired a number of ex-First Republic advisors to expand its presence in the wealth management business, Argus added.

Truist lowered the firm's price target on Comerica to $60 from $62 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note recapping Q1 earnings among Community and Regional Banks. The firm's updated model for Fed funds rate forecast calls for zero cuts in 2024 and four 25bps cuts in 2025 from three in 2023 and 2024 previously, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Truist is also cutting its FY24 and FY25 EPS on the bank to $5.07 and $6.40 from $5.16 and $6.34, with estimate revisions primarily driven by higher net interest margins and offset partially by lower fee income and higher operating expenses in 2024.