Deutsche Bank analyst Ross Seymore continues to have a successful Qualcomm (QCOM) acquisition close as his base case for NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), but he agrees with investors that risks of a break are rising. In a break scenario, the analyst sees 5%-10% upside to NXP shares on a normalized basis. However, before that normalized level is attained, Seymore sees 10% downside risk as the current "arb-laden shareholder base would likely exhibit significant turnover." Consequently, while the long-term risk/reward is becoming intriguing, near-term event/political uncertainty is likely to remain elevated, the analyst tells investors in a research note. As such, he keeps a Hold rating on NXP.