Nomura Instinet analyst Aleksey Yefremov lowered his price target for Olin (OLN) to $16 from $20 citing the "downside surprise" to caustic soda prices. IHS reported last Friday that the caustic soda domestic contract index declined $10/ton month-over-month in September, a surprise, says the analyst, who had expected a flat to down $5/ton settlement. He believes the caustic soda price declines contrast with what should have been a tight supply picture, as 9% of the U.S. capacity experienced outages in September. As such, Yefremov interprets the September settlement as a fairly strong indicator of oversupply in the domestic caustic soda market, and he struggles "to see major positive catalysts on the horizon." The analyst keeps a Neutral rating on Olin and also remains cautious on Westlake Chemical (WLK).

Reports Q1 revenue $1.64B, consensus $1.65B.CEO Ken Lane said, "All Q1 2024 business segment results improved sequentially from Q4 2023, which begins Olin's recovery from trough-level earnings. During the quarter, the Olin team delivered on our commitment to accelerate a favorable inflection point for our Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls business. We expect this momentum to continue with Q2 2024 results, as demand and pricing continue to improve. We expect our Chemical businesses to be sequentially higher than first quarter 2024 levels and our Winchester business to be in line with first quarter results, as a less favorable mix and higher raw material costs offset stronger military volumes. Overall, we anticipate Olin's Q2 2024 adjusted EBITDA to improve from Q1 2024 levels. Based on our current outlook for the pace of demand and pricing improvement for our Chemical businesses, we currently believe Olin's full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA to be similar to or slightly higher than 2023 levels."