JPMorgan analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas downgraded Olin (OLN) to Neutral from Overweight with an unchanged price target of $19. When the recession comes, it will be "less friendly" to caustic soda pricing and profitability than past downturns, Zekauskas tells investors in a research note. Further, in the current economic environment, a sharp housing contraction is unlikely relative to industrial demand, as is the possibility of a sharp counter-cyclical rise in caustic soda prices stemming from a supply/demand squeeze, adds the analyst. The risk/reward characteristics of Olin and Westlake Chemical (WLK) are then less favorable, he says. Zekauskas downgrades Olin to Neutral, matching his rating on Westlake.

Reports Q1 revenue $1.64B, consensus $1.65B.CEO Ken Lane said, "All Q1 2024 business segment results improved sequentially from Q4 2023, which begins Olin's recovery from trough-level earnings. During the quarter, the Olin team delivered on our commitment to accelerate a favorable inflection point for our Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls business. We expect this momentum to continue with Q2 2024 results, as demand and pricing continue to improve. We expect our Chemical businesses to be sequentially higher than first quarter 2024 levels and our Winchester business to be in line with first quarter results, as a less favorable mix and higher raw material costs offset stronger military volumes. Overall, we anticipate Olin's Q2 2024 adjusted EBITDA to improve from Q1 2024 levels. Based on our current outlook for the pace of demand and pricing improvement for our Chemical businesses, we currently believe Olin's full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA to be similar to or slightly higher than 2023 levels."