Morgan Stanley analysts Melissa Franchi, Keith Weiss and James Faucette said their channel checks and reseller survey data support generally solid results from firewall vendors continuing into the second half of 2018 and strengthening in 2019, adding that Palo Alto Networks (PANW) remains the clear share gainer in the space. Talks also suggest the refresh activity around physical appliances remains healthy, added the analysts, who raised their price targets on Palo Alto to $276 from $262 and on Fortinet (FTNT) to $88 from $67. The firm keeps Palo Alto as its top pick in software security.

KeyBanc lowered the firm's price target on Palo Alto Networks to $355 from $380 on lower peer multiples, while keeping an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says that at some point, the case for optimism needs to be backed up by some optimistic data, and its 1Q24 VAR Survey did not deliver it. IT budgets are still in hiding at this point, with just 50% of KeyBanc's respondents meeting or exceeding their goal in the Q1, the lowest quarterly reading since the heart of the pandemic, and sentiment from the follow-up calls with some individuals also has down ticked. The firm's Q4 2023 VAR survey was iffy, the outlook in 2024 from its CIO survey in January was also not great, its SMB survey was worse than expected, and now 2024 is off to a difficult start - "let's just call a trend a trend," KeyBanc adds.