KeyBanc analyst Hans Chung believes the coronavirus outbreak could negatively impact e-commerce companies near-term given logistics constraints due to the lockdown of the province of Hubei and extended shutdowns in many regions. His checks suggest that express capacity has only recovered to sub-10% of the average level in Q4 since January 30, and all Taobao merchants he surveyed pointed out delayed fulfillment due to the lack of workforce for warehousing or last-mile delivery before February 10. Overall, Chung estimates the financial impact on e-commerce companies in Q1 should not be too meaningful: approximately an LSD-MSD percentage in revenue, with Pinduoduo (PDD) likely to be impacted the most, followed by Alibaba (BABA). JD.com (JD) will likely be the least impacted given in-house logistics, and Vipshop (VIPS) will likely be less impacted than Alibaba and Pinduoduo due to it having the most exposure to apparel, he adds. The analyst views the 4% and 3% pullbacks in Alibaba and JD.com shares, respectively, as fair on a small Q1 miss, while the 13% and 12% pullbacks in Pinduoduo and Vipshop shares, respectively, seem to be oversold, creating a good entry opportunity.