Citi analyst James Naklicki downgraded Progressive (PGR) to Sell saying consensus margin and earnings expectations are too optimistic. The company's margins should "deteriorate materially" as it books new business at a combined ratio of around 129%. The analyst cut his 2016 earnings per share estimate to $1.65, which he notes is well below consensus, and dropped his price target for the shares to $31 from $36. Naklicki recommends a pair trade of long Allstate (ALL), short Progressive.

The Allstate Corporation announced estimated catastrophe losses for the month of March of $328M or $259M, after-tax. March month catastrophe losses include six events estimated at $343M or $271M, after-tax, with approximately 80% of the losses related to one hail event, partially offset by favorable reserve reestimates for prior events. Total catastrophe losses for the first quarter were $731M, pre-tax. Rate increases for Allstate brand auto insurance resulted in a premium impact of 0.9% for the month of March and 2.4% year-to-date. Rate increases for Allstate brand homeowners insurance have resulted in a premium impact of 0.7% for the month of March and 3.4% year-to-date. Implemented rate increases and inflation in insured home replacement costs resulted in a 11.9% increase in homeowners insurance average gross written premium in March 2024 compared to the prior year. Our implemented rate exhibit for auto and homeowners insurance has been posted on www.allstateinvestors.com.

UBS raised the firm's price target on Progressive to $218 from $216 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm cites the company's Q1 earnings beat and a higher policies in force growth assumption in personal auto insurance, along with a better personal auto loss ratio, and higher net investment income. Progressive should continue to overearn in 2024, driven by rate increases and loss trend moderating quicker than expected, the analyst tells investors in a research note.