Citi analyst James Naklicki attributes the pos-earnings weakness in shares of Progressive to worries that the underlying combined ratio did not improve year-over-year. The company had a "very difficult target" to exceed as last year's underlying loss ratio was an unusually strong 71.3%, Naklicki tells investors in a research note. The analyst calls the company's results "much better than expected" but thinks the stock's risk/reward "isn't good." He notes that consensus expectations for 2019 are for $3.60 in earnings per share, which is nearly 20% above his estimate. Naklicki keeps a Neutral rating on Progressive with a $58 price target.