Snap shares, which closed yesterday at $14.97, are trading 12% below the $17 initial public offering price and are down nearly 30% since JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth cut his estimates on June 5. Snap's lockup expiration is approaching July 31, but importantly, employees will not be able to sell any shares until their trading window opens on Monday, August 14, due to the company's Q2 earnings report on August 10, Anmuth tells investors in a research note. Stepping into the shares after the initial lockup expiration would likely require taking on Q2 earnings risk, the analyst points out. As such, he believes there could still be further share downside into and after that initial July 31 date. Anmuth thinks Snap shares "also may lack specific valuation support." He keeps a Neutral rating on the name with an $18 price target.

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