Morgan Stanley trimmed Steel company estimates ahead of mid quarter guidance and said the pace of steel price increases has been slower than modeled. The firm does not expect any surprises from Steel Dynamics (STLD) and Nucor (NUE), but sees meaningful downside risk to Q2 AK Steel (AKS) consensus forecasts. The firm is bearish on AK Steel's outlook given the high degree of lagging pricing and lower than expected raw material benefits. Morgan Stanley is modeling AK Steel's Q2 earnings to be (50c) versus consensus of (25c).

BMO Capital lowered the firm's price target on Nucor to $200 from $210 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares after its Q1 earnings miss. Following nine consecutive quarters of beating expectations, Nucor's results and outlook disappointed, while its Q2 results are also expected to moderate sequentially, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Nucor remains well-positioned to benefit from positive longer-term demand tailwinds, but its capex spending elevated, BMO adds.

Reports Q1 revenue $4.7B, consensus $4.74B. "The teams executed well delivering a solid first quarter performance," said Mark D. Millett, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "Underlying steel demand was steady in the quarter; however, we experienced some steel order volatility early in the quarter as customer inventories remain incredibly low and scrap prices declined month over month in the quarter. Customer orders rebounded strongly in March supporting increased pricing and solid order backlogs, especially within our value-added coated flat rolled steel products portfolio. The teams achieved strong first quarter 2024 operating income of $751 million and adjusted EBITDA of $879 million," continued Millett. "The sequential improvement in earnings was driven by our steel and metals recycling businesses and supported by continued historically strong results from our steel fabrication operations. Across the company, our teams achieved strong performance, while keeping each other safe."

Pre-earnings options volume in Steel Dynamics is 1.7x normal with puts leading calls 8:5. Implied volatility suggests the market is anticipating a move near 3.3%, or $4.48, after results are released. Median move over the past eight quarters is 4.0%.

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JPMorgan US Clean Tech/Metals & Mining Analyst Peterson and CFO Laxton hold a 1Q24 earnings follow-up conference call to be held on April 23 at 2 pm hosted by JPMorgan. Webcast Link