Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois lowered his price target for Tesla (TSLA) to $400 from $450 following the Q1 miss in mix and delivered units. While Q1 disappointed, the "critical tests" remain demand elasticity in Q2 as lower priced Model 3 versions become available and sorting out logistics, Houchois tells investors in a research note. Further, the announcement of an "Open Pool" with Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) to reduce calculated CO2 emissions in Europe could generate several million of cash income, possibly starting this year, says the analyst. Nonetheless, he lowered his fiscal year estimates for Tesla by 6% in volume to 374,000 units, revenue by 8% to $27B, GAAP operating income by 36% to $409M and free cash flow by 16% to $560M. Houchois keeps a Buy rating on Tesla.

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Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner downgraded Tesla to Hold from Buy with a price target of $123, down from $189. The analyst cites the "high likelihood" of Model 2 push-out and the company's change of strategic priority to Robotaxi for the downgrade. Deutsche's Buy rating was predicated on Tesla's next-generation vehicle priced at $25,000 coming late next year, which would allow the company to reaccelerate volume, margins and free cash flow, and potentially come to dominate the Western electric vehicle market, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, pushing out the Model 2 will create "significant" earnings and free cash flow pressure on 2026 and beyond estimates, and make the future of the company tied to Tesla "cracking the code on full driverless autonomy," which represents a "significant technological, regulatory and operational challenge," says Deutsche Bank. The firm views Tesla's shift to Robotaxi as "thesis-changing," and worries the stock will need to undergo a "potentially painful transition in ownership base," with investors previously focused on electric vehicle volumes and cost advantages potentially "throwing in the towel, and eventually replaced by AI/tech investors with considerably longer time horizon."

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