Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch believes Tesla's (TSLA) Model 3 rollout is critical to its position in Advanced Driver Assist Systems. Tesla's ability to "accelerate learning cycles related to characterizing driving behavior" is facilitated by the high volume rollout of Model 3," Rusch tells investors in a research note. His channel checks indicate just fifteen models with semi-autonomous driving technology are currently available for model years 2016/2017. These cars are offered by BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Volvo, and Tesla. The analyst notes that a RAND Corporation study estimates over 11B test miles would be necessary in order to show statistically significant evidence of the autonomous vehicle's superiority over human drivers. With Model 3 enabling high mileage data collection, Tesla can accumulate the necessary mileage within just 27 months, or by mid-2021, Rusch writes. The analyst sees the potential for Tesla's ADAS value to be "significantly higher" than Mobileye's (MBLY) acquisition price if it can control the machine learning aspect of the product development. Rusch has a Perform rating on Tesla shares. The stock closed yesterday down $6.49 to $303.86.

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Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner downgraded Tesla to Hold from Buy with a price target of $123, down from $189. The analyst cites the "high likelihood" of Model 2 push-out and the company's change of strategic priority to Robotaxi for the downgrade. Deutsche's Buy rating was predicated on Tesla's next-generation vehicle priced at $25,000 coming late next year, which would allow the company to reaccelerate volume, margins and free cash flow, and potentially come to dominate the Western electric vehicle market, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, pushing out the Model 2 will create "significant" earnings and free cash flow pressure on 2026 and beyond estimates, and make the future of the company tied to Tesla "cracking the code on full driverless autonomy," which represents a "significant technological, regulatory and operational challenge," says Deutsche Bank. The firm views Tesla's shift to Robotaxi as "thesis-changing," and worries the stock will need to undergo a "potentially painful transition in ownership base," with investors previously focused on electric vehicle volumes and cost advantages potentially "throwing in the towel, and eventually replaced by AI/tech investors with considerably longer time horizon."

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