JPMorgan analyst Jamie Baker raised his 2019 estimates "across the board" for the U.S. Airlines ahead of next week's earnings kickoff. However, he says the earnings raises are for the "wrong reasons," namely cheaper fuel and softer RASM. JetBlue Airways' (JBLU) forecasted upside potential falls below 10% after the analyst reduced his target multiples. As such, he downgraded the shares to Neutral from Overweight. The analyst also upgraded Alkaska Air Group (ALK) to Neutral from Underweight rating saying his 2020 earnings forecast for the company is the only one to rise materially. In addition, the analyst upgraded United Continental Holdings (UAL) to Overweight from Neutral. The analyst sees an attractive risk/reward profile following the stock's 14% selloff from just five weeks ago.

Says evaluating capital light growth options. Says Latin geography continues to be pressured from the elevated industry capacity, expecting unit revenue down mid-teens in Q2. Says $175M-$200M structural cost program achieved $100M in savings since program start. Says fleet modernization program achieved $70M in total program savings, increased expected size of program from $75M to $100M. Says Pratt & Whitney compensation accounting update driving incremental pressure on full-year CASM-ex Fuel guidance. Says actively exploring further cost savings opportunities in productivity, maintenance spend optimization and technology-enabled efficiencies. Says after deferring aircraft to smooth delivery profile, actively exploring opportunities to extend the life of about 30 A320 aircraft to supplement future growth. Says carrying a healthy unencumbered asset base. Comments taken from Q1 earnings conference call slides.

Sees FY24 CASM ex-fuel up mid-to-high single digits y/y. Sees FY24 CapEx ~$1.6B.

Reports Q1 revenue $2.2B, consensus $2.2B. "Thanks to our incredible crewmembers and our reinvigorated focus on improving reliability, our operation performed above plan in the first quarter, resulting in revenue and costs coming in better than expectations," said Joanna Geraghty, JetBlue's chief executive officer. "As we look to the full year, significant elevated capacity in our Latin region, which represents a large portion of JetBlue's network, will likely continue to pressure revenue and we expect a setback in our expectations for the full year. We have full confidence that continuing to take action on our refocused standalone strategy is the right path forward to ultimately return to profitability again." "We've begun rolling out the initial components of our refocused plan. In the first quarter, we announced a number of significant network changes, which are designed to free up unprofitable flying and reallocate it to proven leisure markets where JetBlue has historically won" said Marty St. George, JetBlue's president. "Demand remained healthy in peak periods, and in particular, we saw encouraging performance from our domestic and transatlantic flying, as well as continued outsized demand for our premium seating options."