Bernstein says that a $44B claim against Vale (VALE) and BHP (BHP) relating to a burst dam is unlikely to proceed further. The firm says that, if the fine was imposed, the companies would refuse to pay the remaining liability, BHP would leave Brazil, and Vale would go bankrupt, resulting in significant job and tax revenue losses for the country. Bernstein argues that Brazil does not have nearly as much leverage against the companies as the U.S. had against BP (BP) in the wake of the Macondo disaster. The firm keeps Market Perform ratings on BHP and Vale.