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Fly News Breaks for February 24, 2017
SGYP, VRX
Feb 24, 2017 | 08:47 EDT
The market is underestimating Valeant Pharmaceuticals' "poor" prescription trends, reliance on price, employee turnover, execution risk on product launches, patent expiries including Xifaxan and numerous lawsuits, Wells Fargo analyst David Maris tells investors in a research note titled "Deja Valeant--We See History Repeating Itself." The stock is overvalued, and despite management wanting to talk about the "new Valeant," the company's business trends and pricing-driven model remain "old Valeant," Maris contends. He cut his Q4 earnings per share estimate for the company to $1.48 from $1.48, 2017 estimate to $5.03 from $5.14 and 2018 estimate to $5.45 from $5.91. His Q4 estimate remains well above the consensus of $1.22. Maris points out that since the new management team took over in 2016, Valeant set and then lowered guidance, raised prices on more than 50 products, missed key launch targets, had manufacturing issues and saw prescription declines continue. On the positive front, the company has sold $2.3B of assets, the analyst points out. Maris, who wrote this week that Valeant likely just lost 50-plus salespeople to Synergy Pharmaceuticals (SGYP), keeps an Underperform rating on Valeant with a $10-$13 price target range. The drugmaker closed yesterday at $16.58.
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