BofA/Merrill analysts led by Timna Tanners believes hot rolled coil , or HRC, steel prices will peak at $600/ton in Q3. The firm's contacts indicate import offers have been increasingly attractive and expect rising imports to hurt prices in Q4. BofA/Merrill raised 2016 average U.S. benchmark HRC to $530/ton from $485/ton but sees pressures ahead from scrap prices flat-to-down from a Q2 peak, cheaper imports, Big River starting and CSN restarting capacity, and Q4 seasonality. The firm upgraded U.S. Steel (X) to Neutral based on higher sheet price forecasts and reduced liquidity risks.

Reliance expects a better than normal seasonal recovery in demand in the second quarter of 2024 despite prevailing macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical matters. Accordingly, the company estimates its tons sold will be up 2.5% to 4.5% in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the first quarter of 2024, with approximately 2% of the sequential growth coming from recently completed acquisitions on April 1, 2024. In addition, Reliance expects its average selling price per ton sold for the second quarter of 2024 to be down 1% to 3% compared to the first quarter of 2024. The company also anticipates short term gross profit margin pressure in the second quarter of 2024 as it works through higher cost inventory on hand. Based on these expectations, the company anticipates non-GAAP earnings per diluted share in the range of $4.70 to $4.90 for the second quarter of 2024.

BMO Capital lowered the firm's price target on Nucor to $200 from $210 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares after its Q1 earnings miss. Following nine consecutive quarters of beating expectations, Nucor's results and outlook disappointed, while its Q2 results are also expected to moderate sequentially, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Nucor remains well-positioned to benefit from positive longer-term demand tailwinds, but its capex spending elevated, BMO adds.