UBS analyst Andreas Bokkenheuser said he remains cautious on the steel sector and said his research shows there is more imports on flat steel than rolled. That is more negative for US Steel (X) and AK Steel (AKS) than Nucor (NUE) and Steel Dynamics (STLD). He also believes the shares are pricing in a steel price correction already, so he expects the equities to outperform the physical prices.
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JPMorgan US Clean Tech/Metals & Mining Analyst Peterson and CFO Laxton hold a 1Q24 earnings follow-up conference call to be held on April 23 at 2 pm hosted by JPMorgan. Webcast Link
Says will continue to buy back stock "hand over fist." Says Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) "the only U.S. solution" for U.S. Steel (X). Says will have to "re-assess value" of U.S. Steel. Says targeting net debt to EBITDA of 2.5x. Says balance sheet in "great shape, near record liquidity." Sees CapEx ~$1B/year from 2025-2028. Comments taken from Q1 earnings conference call.
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"We expect earnings in the second quarter of 2024 to decrease compared to the first quarter of 2024. The largest driver for the expected decrease in earnings in the second quarter of 2024 is the decreased earnings of the steel mills segment, primarily due to lower average selling prices partially offset by modestly increased volumes. The steel products segment is expected to have moderately decreased earnings in the second quarter of 2024 as compared to the first quarter of 2024 due to lower average selling prices, partially offset by increased volumes. Earnings in the raw materials segment are expected to be higher in the second quarter of 2024 as compared to the first quarter of 2024 due to the increased profitability of our direct reduced iron facilities and scrap processing operations."
Pre-earnings options volume in Nucor is 4.3x normal with puts leading calls 19:5. Implied volatility suggests the market is anticipating a move near 4.1%, or $7.84, after results are released. Median move over the past eight quarters is 5.5%.