Jefferies analyst Seth Rosenfeld downgraded U.S. Steel to Hold from Buy and lowered his price target for the shares to $24 from $38. "Poor" Q4 earnings and Q1 guides will begin to reflect the extent of recent steel margin weakness, Rosenfeld tells investors in a research note. The analyst, while remaining "constructive" on the broader Steel sector, downgraded U.S. Steel to reflect guidance risk and "increasingly challenged" long-term prospects. With both U.S. and European flat steel margins drifting lower, drivers for a "meaningful recovery" at the company are "hard to identify," says the analyst. As such, he believes U.S. Steel's 2019 EBITDA guidance risks disappointing consensus expectations. Rosenfeld's top picks in the U.S. are Nucor (NUE), Commercial Metals (CMC), Steel Dynamics (STLD), Reliance Steel (RS) and Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF).

Reliance expects a better than normal seasonal recovery in demand in the second quarter of 2024 despite prevailing macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical matters. Accordingly, the company estimates its tons sold will be up 2.5% to 4.5% in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the first quarter of 2024, with approximately 2% of the sequential growth coming from recently completed acquisitions on April 1, 2024. In addition, Reliance expects its average selling price per ton sold for the second quarter of 2024 to be down 1% to 3% compared to the first quarter of 2024. The company also anticipates short term gross profit margin pressure in the second quarter of 2024 as it works through higher cost inventory on hand. Based on these expectations, the company anticipates non-GAAP earnings per diluted share in the range of $4.70 to $4.90 for the second quarter of 2024.

BMO Capital lowered the firm's price target on Nucor to $200 from $210 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares after its Q1 earnings miss. Following nine consecutive quarters of beating expectations, Nucor's results and outlook disappointed, while its Q2 results are also expected to moderate sequentially, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Nucor remains well-positioned to benefit from positive longer-term demand tailwinds, but its capex spending elevated, BMO adds.

Reports Q1 revenue $4.7B, consensus $4.74B. "The teams executed well delivering a solid first quarter performance," said Mark D. Millett, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "Underlying steel demand was steady in the quarter; however, we experienced some steel order volatility early in the quarter as customer inventories remain incredibly low and scrap prices declined month over month in the quarter. Customer orders rebounded strongly in March supporting increased pricing and solid order backlogs, especially within our value-added coated flat rolled steel products portfolio. The teams achieved strong first quarter 2024 operating income of $751 million and adjusted EBITDA of $879 million," continued Millett. "The sequential improvement in earnings was driven by our steel and metals recycling businesses and supported by continued historically strong results from our steel fabrication operations. Across the company, our teams achieved strong performance, while keeping each other safe."

Pre-earnings options volume in Steel Dynamics is 1.7x normal with puts leading calls 8:5. Implied volatility suggests the market is anticipating a move near 3.3%, or $4.48, after results are released. Median move over the past eight quarters is 4.0%.

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JPMorgan US Clean Tech/Metals & Mining Analyst Peterson and CFO Laxton hold a 1Q24 earnings follow-up conference call to be held on April 23 at 2 pm hosted by JPMorgan. Webcast Link

Cleveland-Cliffs is down -6.8%, or -$1.42 to $19.43.

Says will continue to buy back stock "hand over fist." Says Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) "the only U.S. solution" for U.S. Steel (X). Says will have to "re-assess value" of U.S. Steel. Says targeting net debt to EBITDA of 2.5x. Says balance sheet in "great shape, near record liquidity." Sees CapEx ~$1B/year from 2025-2028. Comments taken from Q1 earnings conference call.

During its earnings release yesterday, Cleveland-Cliffs announced that during the first quarter, the company repurchased 30.4M CLF common shares, fully utilizing the remaining balance of $608M under the previously authorized $1B share repurchase program. The average stock purchase price for the entire program was $18.79 per share. Following the completion of the program, the Cliffs Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program for the company to buy back up to $1.5B of its outstanding common shares. The new program does not have a specific expiration date.