Cowen analyst Novid Rassouli said he sees upside for the entire steel group following the announced decision on tariffs for imported steel and aluminum. He said the entire steel group is trading at a discount to current spot steel prices. The analyst also believes Century Aluminum (CENX) will be the biggest beneficiary on the aluminum side, as he sees it as the best vehicle to capitalize. Publicly traded companies in the steel space include U.S. Steel (X), Steel Dynamics (STLD), AK Steel (AKS), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), Nucor (NUE) and ArcelorMittal (MT).

Reports Q1 revenue $4.7B, consensus $4.74B. "The teams executed well delivering a solid first quarter performance," said Mark D. Millett, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "Underlying steel demand was steady in the quarter; however, we experienced some steel order volatility early in the quarter as customer inventories remain incredibly low and scrap prices declined month over month in the quarter. Customer orders rebounded strongly in March supporting increased pricing and solid order backlogs, especially within our value-added coated flat rolled steel products portfolio. The teams achieved strong first quarter 2024 operating income of $751 million and adjusted EBITDA of $879 million," continued Millett. "The sequential improvement in earnings was driven by our steel and metals recycling businesses and supported by continued historically strong results from our steel fabrication operations. Across the company, our teams achieved strong performance, while keeping each other safe."

Pre-earnings options volume in Steel Dynamics is 1.7x normal with puts leading calls 8:5. Implied volatility suggests the market is anticipating a move near 3.3%, or $4.48, after results are released. Median move over the past eight quarters is 4.0%.

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JPMorgan US Clean Tech/Metals & Mining Analyst Peterson and CFO Laxton hold a 1Q24 earnings follow-up conference call to be held on April 23 at 2 pm hosted by JPMorgan. Webcast Link

Cleveland-Cliffs is down -6.8%, or -$1.42 to $19.43.

Says will continue to buy back stock "hand over fist." Says Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) "the only U.S. solution" for U.S. Steel (X). Says will have to "re-assess value" of U.S. Steel. Says targeting net debt to EBITDA of 2.5x. Says balance sheet in "great shape, near record liquidity." Sees CapEx ~$1B/year from 2025-2028. Comments taken from Q1 earnings conference call.

During its earnings release yesterday, Cleveland-Cliffs announced that during the first quarter, the company repurchased 30.4M CLF common shares, fully utilizing the remaining balance of $608M under the previously authorized $1B share repurchase program. The average stock purchase price for the entire program was $18.79 per share. Following the completion of the program, the Cliffs Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program for the company to buy back up to $1.5B of its outstanding common shares. The new program does not have a specific expiration date.

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"We expect earnings in the second quarter of 2024 to decrease compared to the first quarter of 2024. The largest driver for the expected decrease in earnings in the second quarter of 2024 is the decreased earnings of the steel mills segment, primarily due to lower average selling prices partially offset by modestly increased volumes. The steel products segment is expected to have moderately decreased earnings in the second quarter of 2024 as compared to the first quarter of 2024 due to lower average selling prices, partially offset by increased volumes. Earnings in the raw materials segment are expected to be higher in the second quarter of 2024 as compared to the first quarter of 2024 due to the increased profitability of our direct reduced iron facilities and scrap processing operations."

The Company maintained all of its previously guided expectations for the full-year 2024, including: Steel shipment volumes of 16.5 million net tons; Year-over-year steel unit cost reductions of approximately $30 per net ton, corresponding to an approximate $500 million Adjusted EBITDA benefit compared to 2023; and Capital expenditures of $675M to $725M.

Reports Q1 revenue $5.20B, consensus $5.35B. Cliffs' Chairman, President and CEO Lourenco Goncalves said: "Our first quarter results were highlighted by the resiliency of automotive production in the United States, which helped to offset a temporary buyers strike from service centers in January and February. With more automotive and less service center business, first quarter mix was richer than originally anticipated, driving both our average selling prices and production costs higher than expected. In the first quarter, we returned capital to our shareholders at an aggressive rate. Our stock was cheap throughout the quarter and remains so, driving the exhaustion of our previous $1 billion share repurchase authorization and the commencement of another larger one. Buying our own stock is clearly a better use of capital than any M&A opportunities at current valuations -- so that's our primary focus. This quarter, our efforts towards green steel production were recognized in an unprecedented way. As a result of our strong track record with emissions reductions and labor relations, we became the largest intended recipient of federal grants toward decarbonization in the history of the United States. These investments will go toward two game-changing projects, not only with immense carbon reduction prospects, but also robust returns and manageable capital commitments. Looking forward, we expect to benefit in Q2 from the lower costs under our guidance, which we have maintained. Our largest end market, the automotive sector, is expected to remain strong. Orders from our service center customers have started to increase, with spot pricing also on the upswing. We are fortunate to have such a remarkable partnership with our workforce, and we will navigate this world of abundant opportunities together with our union partners."

Pre-earnings options volume in Nucor is 4.3x normal with puts leading calls 19:5. Implied volatility suggests the market is anticipating a move near 4.1%, or $7.84, after results are released. Median move over the past eight quarters is 5.5%.

Pre-earnings options volume in Cleveland-Cliffs is normal with calls leading puts 8:5. Implied volatility suggests the market is anticipating a move near 6.0%, or $1.26, after results are released. Median move over the past eight quarters is 6.5%.