BofA/Merrill analyst Timma Tanners is cautious on U.S. steel prices correcting into 2H 2016 and expects foreign tons to target the U.S. to shrink the U.S. premium. The analyst lowered Q4 HRC spot price to $520/st from $570/st and trimmed 2H 2016 volume assumptions due to inventory destocking and shorter lead times. As a result, Tanners lowered price target on U.S. Steel (X) to $16 from $21 , Reliance Steel (RS) to $78 from $84, Nucor (NUE) to $50 from $55, Steel Dynamics (STLD) to $27 from $28, and Commercial Metals (CMC) to $15 from $16.

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"We expect earnings in the second quarter of 2024 to decrease compared to the first quarter of 2024. The largest driver for the expected decrease in earnings in the second quarter of 2024 is the decreased earnings of the steel mills segment, primarily due to lower average selling prices partially offset by modestly increased volumes. The steel products segment is expected to have moderately decreased earnings in the second quarter of 2024 as compared to the first quarter of 2024 due to lower average selling prices, partially offset by increased volumes. Earnings in the raw materials segment are expected to be higher in the second quarter of 2024 as compared to the first quarter of 2024 due to the increased profitability of our direct reduced iron facilities and scrap processing operations."

Pre-earnings options volume in Nucor is 4.3x normal with puts leading calls 19:5. Implied volatility suggests the market is anticipating a move near 4.1%, or $7.84, after results are released. Median move over the past eight quarters is 5.5%.