Morgan Stanley analyst Courtney Yakavonis noted that Caterpillar's references yesterday to Q1 results as the "high water mark" for margins and earnings this year sent its shares, as well as other Industrial stocks, into a tailspin and raised questions about whether the market is at the cycle peak. However, she thinks the comment was misinterpreted and was meant in reference to this year, not the cycle. Q2 tends to be the strongest operating income and EPS quarter for Caterpillar on average, but the company was outlining reasons why operating margins should decline sequentially on a consolidated level in Q2, noted Yakavonis, who keeps an Overweight rating and $185 price target on Caterpillar shares.
TD Cowen analyst Matt Elkott raised the firm's price target on Caterpillar to $340 from $338 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated its model to reflect the 1Q beat partly offset by a slightly more tempered outlook for the remainder of the year.
Stifel downgraded Caterpillar to Hold from Buy with a price target of $350, up from $293, after the company reported Q1 results. The firm noted that Q1 sales were "modestly" below expectations, though EBIT and EPS were ahead of consensus estimates. Results also reflected weaker end user sales, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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Still does not expect significant change in machine dealer inventory compared to 2023. Still expects 2024 full-year adjusted operating profit margin to be in the top half of the updated target range relative to the expected corresponding level of sales and revenues. Still expects 2024 full-year ME&T free cash flow to be in the top half of the updated target range. Still anticipates another year of services growth.
Sees Q2 dealer inventories of machines down year-over-year. Expects Q2 price realization to remain favorable vs, last year. Sees Q2 adjusted operating profit margin similar to 2Q23. Guidance taken from Q1 investor presentation slides.
Reports Q1 revenue $15.8B, consensus $16.04B. "I'm pleased with our team's performance that resulted in higher adjusted operating profit margin, record adjusted profit per share and strong ME&T free cash flow. Our strong balance sheet and ME&T free cash flow allowed us to deploy a record $5.1 billion of cash for share repurchases and dividends in the first quarter," said Chairman and CEO Jim Umpleby. "We continue to execute our strategy for long-term profitable growth."