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SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

$213.32

0.31 (0.15%)

, SPX

S&P 500

$2,135.60

3.05 (0.14%)

14:27
10/14/16
10/14
14:27
10/14/16
14:27

On The Fly: Weekly technical notes for S&P 500

For a moment this week it appeared likely that the range that persisted through the summer was about to change. The S&P 500 (SPX) did break below not only 2140 but also 2130, though that dip was immediately bought without the bears intervening to push more aggressively lower. This mean-reverting behavior is not conducive to breakouts or breakdowns as we have seen now nearly countless times over several months. At time of writing the index is back near 2140. A move to that level or slightly higher would see the bulls potentially back in charge next week, with a large proviso. We have not even begun yet to see earnings flows. We may well be in a very different technical situation as Q3 earning season heats up in the next several weeks. The ranges for now remain as they were, with another subtle shift. At or above 2140, the range is 2140 to 2180. Below 2140, it becomes 2130 to 2100. We may have something of a DMZ between 2140 to 2130 itself where we may see more price pivots and uncertainty. A break below 2100, which had been long-run resistance this year, would be the decisive factor for the trend to turn bearish. Similarly the bulls would need to commit to 2200 and higher as an objective on the upside to turn the trend to bullish from neutral.

SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

$213.32

0.31 (0.15%)

SPX

S&P 500

$2,135.60

3.05 (0.14%)

SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
$213.32

0.31 (0.15%)

08/01/16
GSCO
08/01/16
NO CHANGE
GSCO
Equities downgraded to Underweight over 3 months at Goldman
Goldman analyst led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann downgraded tactically to Underweight over 3 months, but remain Neutral over 12 months, and remains Overweight cash and would look for a reset lower in equities to add positions. The analyst said equities remain expensive and earnings growth is poor, in said equities are now just at the upper end of their 'fat and flat' range.
SPX S&P 500
$2,135.60

3.05 (0.14%)

05/18/16
05/18/16
NO CHANGE

Goldman downgrades Equities to Neutral
Goldman Portfolio Strategy Research analysts led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann downgraded equities to Neutral over 12 months on growth and valuation concerns. Equities do not look attractive until earnings growth can be sustained, the analyst wrote in a report. He expects a stronger dollar and the prospect of less negative equity/foreign exchange correlations and remains Overweight cash on a 3-month basis given higher cross-asset volatility.
09/06/16
MSCO
09/06/16
NO CHANGE
MSCO
S&P 500 price target raised to 2,300 from 2,200 at Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley analysts led by Adam Parker raised its 12 month price target on the S&P 500 to 2,300 from 2,200, bull case to 2,500 from 2,400, and bear case to 1,800 from 1,600.

TODAY'S FREE FLY STORIES

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PBR

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MRK

Merck

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C

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PAAS

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C

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