The U.S. consumer confidence surge
The U.S. consumer confidence surge to a 107.1 new cycle-high from 100.8 (was 98.6) in October left consumer confidence well above the 103.8 prior cycle-high in January of 2015. All of the confidence surveys released since the election are showing a powerful bounce, though this is the only measure that has soared past it's early-2015 high. Beyond the election and related stock-price surge, confidence and producer sentiment face a lift from the Q3-Q4 GDP growth bounce after a 3-quarter string of near-1% rates, as the mining and factory sectors recover with the reversal in inventories, alongside an ongoing lift from low gasoline prices and rising home prices. For other measures, the Michigan sentiment index popped to 93.8 from a 2-year low of 87.2 in November, versus a 98.1 cycle-high in January of 2015, while the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index rose sharply to a 45.3 average in the first two weeks of November from a 42.3 average in October, versus a 45.7 cycle-high average in April of 2015. The "pre-election" November IBD/TIPP index ticked up to 51.4 from 51.3, versus a 54.0 cycle-high in October of 2012.