Today's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed solid personal income, ADP, and Chicago PMI figures that further document accelerating activity. For income, analysts saw a firm 0.6% October rise, with a lean 0.3% consumption increase but with the expected 0.1% "real" gain thanks to a lean 0.2% PCE chain price rise. Analysts saw skewing of Q3 income and consumption strength toward September that lifted the entry to Q4, beyond the expected upward income revisions in Q2 and Q3, and Q3 consumption boosts. Analysts lifted our consumption estimates, though analysts still peg Q4 GDP growth at 1.8%. A 216k November ADP rise beat our 180k estimate for private payrolls with a 190k total payroll increase, though analysts saw a big 28k downward October ADP revision to 119k from 147k that left a downside gap to the 142k private payroll increase in that month. Analysts saw a November Chicago PMI surge to a 22-month high of 57.6 to leave a robust level as producer sentiment extends its uptrend. Analysts still expect a 190k rise in November payrolls, with risks analysts discuss in Monday's commentary.