The U.S. durables report
The U.S. durables report revealed a largely expected 4.6% November orders plunge thanks to a big 13.2% transportation drop, alongside a 0.5% ex-transportation rise that was boosted by a 31.8% defense orders surge. Analysts saw a weak equipment, inventory and shipment figures that trimmed prospects for Q4 GDP, though analysts left our estimate at 1.3% after today's reported 3.5% Q3 clip. Wee now expect a flat (was 2%) Q4 growth rate for real equipment spending after a 4.5% contraction rate in Q3. Analysts expect a $7 B Q4 inventory addition that leaves a still-lean $14 B accumulation rate. Analysts expect a 0.2% November factory inventory rise with a 0.3% business inventory increase, given today's lean 0.1% factory durable inventory increase. Analysts assume a 2.3% November factory orders drop with a flat factory shipments figure, given an assumed flat nondurable shipments and orders figure.