Today's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed a small upside Q3 GDP surprise with a headline boost to 3.5% from 3.2%, and firmness in "real" consumption in the November personal income report that lifted our Q4 GDP growth estimate to 1.5% from 1.3%. Yet, analysts also saw weak equipment and inventory data in the durable goods report that restrained our growth outlook, beyond the expected big 4.6% November headline orders drop attributable to a 13.2% transportation plunge. A 21k initial claims surge to 275k in the BLS survey week was disappointing, though the spike is likely due to holiday volatility, and the trend in claims remains encouraging. Finally, analysts saw a flat leading indicators figure for November that modestly beat estimates, while the Bloomberg consumer comfort index rose yet again, to a 20-month high of 46.7.