Canada October GDP Preview
Canada October GDP Preview: Analysts expect GDP to expand 0.1% m/m in October after the 0.3% gain in September. Total retail sales volumes grew 0.6% in October. A 0.9% m/m bounce in wholesale shipment volumes contrasted with the 1.7% plunge in manufacturing. But housing starts fell 12.1% to a 192.3k pace in October, consistent with a negative contribution from construction production. The outlook for mining, oil and gas production is mixed. Energy export values grew 5.5%, but prices did climb in October, suggesting that volumes may be disappointing. The manufacturing report revealed a 1.7% pull-back in petro and coal production. The 0.1% gain that analysts expect in October GDP combined with the 0.1% growth rates in November and December equate to a 1.9% growth rate in Q4 (q/q, saar). That would overshoot the BoC's 1.5% estimate after the 3.5% Q3 GDP gain eclipsed the Bank's 3.2% estimate. Growth is running slightly better than expected in the second half of 2016, consistent with a modestly more upbeat outlook in the January MPR that maintains no-change-for-an-expended-period as the baseline for BoC policy.