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SAGE

Sage Therapeutics

$62.75

5.17 (8.98%)

, AGN

Allergan

09:35
02/17/17
02/17
09:35
02/17/17
09:35

William Blair estimates $102/share buyout value for SAGE

After SAGE Therapeutics (SAGE) CEO Jeff Jonas noted during an interview yesterday that his company has received takeover interest, William Blair analyst Tim Lugo made some estimates on what SAGE could garner in a takeout scenario. An acquisition is unlikely before the Phase III studies set to report out through midyear as well as several other proof-of-concept studies, Lugo cautions. He believes, however, that the company's "strong pipeline of central nervous system targeting therapies" would be complementary to a number of larger companies, including Allergan (AGN), AstraZeneca (AZN) and potentially Biogen (BIIB). When using comparable acquisitions of companies in the pre-commercial phase with a median premium of 55% to the prior close and a 2.8 times enterprise value to his peak sales estimate of $1.5B, Lugo arrives at potential takeover value for SAGE of $102 per share, or a $4.2B enterprise value. Using a sum-of-the-parts analysis, the analyst arrives at a fair-value estimate between $95 and $100 per share. SAGE in early trading is down $2.36 to $60.39. Lugo has an Outperform rating on the stock.

SAGE

Sage Therapeutics

$62.75

5.17 (8.98%)

AGN

Allergan

AZN

AstraZeneca

BIIB

Biogen

$290.13

-2.51 (-0.86%)

  • 21

    Feb

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SAGE Sage Therapeutics
$62.75

5.17 (8.98%)

12/14/16
RAJA
12/14/16
UPGRADE
Target $84
RAJA
Strong Buy
SAGE Therapeutics upgraded to Strong Buy at Raymond James
As previously reported, Raymond James upgraded Sage Therapeutics to Strong Buy from Buy. Analyst Christopher Raymond said yesterday's R&D event provided an in-depth look at the breadth of the platform and the progress to date. Eight clinical readouts are expected in 2017, with the 1H 2017 STATUS readout in the spotlight, the analyst wrote. He remains encouraged by SAGE's execution, considerable strategic optionality, and thinks at current levels offers a compelling entry point and a positive setup in 2017.
02/14/17
CHDN
02/14/17
UPGRADE
CHDN
Neutral
SAGE Therapeutics upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Chardan
02/13/17
BMOC
02/13/17
NO CHANGE
BMOC
Outperform
SAGE depressive disorder data early, but impressive, says BMO Capital
BMO Capital analyst Gary Nachman acknowledged that the data in a Phase 2 study for SAGE Therapeutics' major depressive disorder drug is still early, but he also believes the data are impressive and help validate the mechanism of SAGE-217. The analyst, who said that the opportunity could be meaningful if the effect is confirmed in Part B of the Phase 2 given the size of the MDD market, reiterates his Outperform rating on SAGE shares.
01/25/17
RHCO
01/25/17
NO CHANGE
RHCO
SAGE weakness does not appear to be due to fundamentals, says SunTrust
SunTrust analyst Edward Nash says that he can find no fundamental reason for yesterday's weakness in SAGE's stock. The analyst says that the main catalyst of the weakness may have been a pre-planned stock distribution by Third Rock Ventures which was identified by SAGE's management. Nash notes that SAGE is supposed to report a great deal of data this year, and he thinks the data could drive the shares higher. The analyst keeps a Buy rating on the stock.
AGN Allergan

02/14/17
RBCM
02/14/17
NO CHANGE
RBCM
Allergan deal creates significant opportunities, says RBC Capital
RBC Capital analyst Randall Stanicky says that Allergan's (AGN) acquisition of ZELTIQ (ZLTQ) is "expensive," but creates significant opportunities for Allergan, including "broad coverage" of the "heavily under-penetrated" aesthetics market and the ability to cross-sell to its current aesthetics customers. The analyst keeps a $279 price target and an Outperform rating on Allergan.
02/13/17
LEER
02/13/17
NO CHANGE
LEER
ZELTIQ takeover raises M&A chances for other aesthetic players, says Leerink
After Allergan (AGN) announced an agreement to acquire ZELTIQ Aesthetics (ZLTQ) for $2.475B, Leerink analyst Richard Newitter said he thinks the deal increases the takeover prospects for other aesthetic players, particularly those with non-invasive fat offerings. With ZELTIQ off the table, Cynosure (CYNO), Syneron Medical (ELOS) and Cutera (CUTR) could "move into play for another strategic acquirer relatively quickly," Newitter tells investors. The analyst adds that he views Cynosure as "a much higher quality asset" than Syneron, but adds that the latter is "significantly cheaper." On ZELTIQ, he thinks Allergan is "likely the final suitor" given the price it has agreed to pay.
02/13/17
PIPR
02/13/17
DOWNGRADE
PIPR
Neutral
ZELTIQ downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray analyst Matt O'Brien downgraded ZELTIQ (ZLTQ) to Neutral from Overweight, saying he views the deal price Allergan (AGN) agreed to pay as fair and doubts any competitive bids would top it.
02/16/17
JPMS
02/16/17
INITIATION
Target $56.5
JPMS
Neutral
ZELTIQ reinstated with a Neutral at JPMorgan
JPMorgan analyst Tycho Peterson reinstated ZELTIQ Aesthetics (ZLTQ) with a Neutral rating and $56.50 price target following a period of restriction. The analyst does not expect a competing takeover bid to Allergan's (AGN) to emerge, especially with Hologic (HOLX) recently acquiring Cynosure (CYNO).
AZN AstraZeneca

01/12/17
PIPR
01/12/17
UPGRADE
Target $72
PIPR
Overweight
Merck upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray analyst Richard Purkiss upgraded Merck (MRK) to Overweight saying he expects the FDA will conditionally approve the use of Keytruda plus chemo by May 10. Keytruda's adoption in first-line lung cancer would then be "substantially brought forward" to the initial detriment of Bristol-Myers (BMY), AstraZeneca (AZN) and Roche (RHHBY), Purkiss tells investors in a research note. The earlier than expected boost to Keytruda sales increases the analyst's 2017-2019 earnings forecasts for Merck by 12%-18%. Purkiss raised his price target for the shares to $72 from $63. The stock closed yesterday up $1.71 to $61.63.
01/30/17
SBSH
01/30/17
NO CHANGE
Target $151
SBSH
Buy
TESARO could be worth up to $238/share in a takeover, says Citi
Citi analyst Robyn Karnauskas estimates that TESARO (TSRO) could be valued at $208-$238 per share in a deal to be acquired. The stock closed Friday up 49c to $153.85. Multiple catalysts in TESARO's immune-oncology program throughout 2017 could cause investors to gain confidence and assign value to the program, Karnauskas tells investors in a research note. She keeps a Buy rating on the shares with a $151 price target. The analyst says she's been getting questions around the competitive landscape in the PARP space and potential M&A valuations ahead of the SOLO-2 data from AstraZeneca (AZN) expected in Q1.
12/20/16
LEER
12/20/16
NO CHANGE
LEER
Outperform
Clovis Rubraca approval unlikely to impact TESARO niraparib, says Leerink
Commenting on Clovis' (CLVS) Rubraca accelerated approval by the FDA for the treatment of germline or somatic BRCA-mutated ovarian cancer patients, Leerink analyst Seamus Fernandez says the label appears "fairly broad" and does not restrict use based on platinum sensitivity/resistance. While he believes this current approval is unlikely to impact the initial competitive dynamics for TESARO's (TSRO) niraparib or AstraZeneca's (AZN) Lynparza in second-line maintenance, the analyst points out that data from Rubraca's Phase 3 ARIEL3 trial in this setting is now expected in mid-2017. Despite the earlier readout, Fernandez continues to see niraparib as the ultimate winner in second-line maintenance. He reiterates an Outperform rating on TESARO's shares.
12/20/16
SBSH
12/20/16
NO CHANGE
Target $151
SBSH
Buy
Citi views Rubraca approval as positive for PARP class
Citi analyst Robyn Karnauskas views the approval of Clovis Oncology's (CLVS) Rubraca as positive for the PARP class. She keeps a Buy rating on TESARO (TSRO) with a $151 price target. TESARO's Niraparib is expected to be approved for second-line maintenance in 2017 while data from its third-line study are expected in the second half of the year. The analyst currently assigns a50% probability to Niraparib in third-line line and 35% market share. Karnauskas notes that Rubraca costs $13,740 for 30 days, below AstraZeneca's (AZN) Lynparza's $11,984. Her model assumes monthly pricing of $10,000 for Niraparib.
BIIB Biogen
$290.13

-2.51 (-0.86%)

02/07/17
SBSH
02/07/17
UPGRADE
Target $305
SBSH
Buy
Biogen upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citi
Citi analyst Robyn Karnauskas upgraded Biogen to Buy with an increased price target of $305. The stock closed yesterday up 24c to $264.91. With the Alzheimer's Phase 2 data already reported and no Phase 3 results until 2019/20, upside in the stock rests on the stability of Biogen's multiple sclerosis business and success of the Spinraza launch in spinal muscular atrophy, Karnauskas tells investors in a research note. Her firm's proprietary survey suggests upside to Spinraza estimates. Further, the analyst's "deep dive" analysis suggests longer term estimates for Biogen's MS business are fair to conservative.
02/07/17
02/07/17
UPGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst upgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst upgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Biogen (BIIB) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citi with analyst Robyn Karnauskas saying the Alzheimer's Phase 2 data already reported and no Phase 3 results until 2019/20, upside in the stock rests on the stability of Biogen's multiple sclerosis business and success of the Spinraza launch in spinal muscular atrophy. 2. Caterpillar (CAT) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays with analyst Robert Wertheimer saying investors likely will never get a chance to buy the company's revenue with as much upside as in 2017. 3. Sysco (SYY) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan with analyst John Ivankoe saying the shares should be bought in the low $50s. He raised his price target for the shares to $57 from $55. 4. Nokia (NOK) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley. 5. UBS (UBS) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA/Merrill with analyst Andrew Stimpson saying negative catalysts have played out. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
02/15/17
LEER
02/15/17
INITIATION
Target $56
LEER
Outperform
Bioverativ initiated with an Outperform at Leerink
Leerink analyst Jason Gerberry initiated Bioverativ (BIVV) with an Outperform rating and $56 price target, citing the "underappreciated durability" of its marketed hemophilia assets, near-term projections that he views as beatable and the potential for tax reform or an M&A deal to unlock value. Bioverativ recently spun off from Biogen (BIIB) and "spins have a history of working," Gerberry added.
02/15/17
LEER
02/15/17
NO CHANGE
LEER
Biogen outlook intact despite Merck study suspension, says Leerink
Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges notes that Merck (MRK) announced the suspension of the Phase 2/3 EPOCH trial of verubecestat in mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's patients for lack of efficacy, which was one of the most important catalysts for the field this year and a significant overhang for Biogen (BIIB) and other companies. While the failure had been widely anticipated in this study, the analyst believes this result does not read over to the outlook for Biogen's ongoing pivotal trials with aducanumab, or with its partner, Eisai's (ESALY) BACE inhibitor, elenbecestat.

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