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SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

$238.38

1.61 (0.68%)

, SPX

S&P 500

10:44
05/19/17
05/19
10:44
05/19/17
10:44

On The Fly: Weekly technical notes for S&P 500

The S&P 500 (SPX) is in an upward-biased mean-reversion mode that has taken price right back to what was key support at 2380, but is now resistance. If the old adage of markets existing to provide "maximum frustration" is true, we are at a technical threshold that could leave bears without a leg to stand on, or alternately, void support for the bulls just as they believe they've taken back control of the tape after a savage week. "Maximum Frustration" would be a close just above or below this threshold, with an uncertain Monday ahead. Each side might then believe they are on the right side, only to quickly forget how we got here. Levels themselves are not particularly relevant. It is how traders behave at those inflection points that really matters; they are markers of sentiment more than anything. Collective trader psychology is a longer-term function of price and time, and whether one is on the correct side. Had the bulls not tried for a punt higher, it would have been very surprising. Equally interesting however has been the relative silence of the bears in the face of a not insubstantial victory. It is possible that the silence is because neither side was properly positioned for the downside we got. We may see position shuffling and churn today if that is true . For today, a close lower might sap the bulls of confidence. Unless it was a decisive push lower, though, it might equally be a trap for the bears come Monday. The reverse conditions - a further push and close higher now - would leave the bears out in the cold and the bulls perhaps far too confident of an easy week ahead. As of now the key levels of concern are at 2390 for the bulls and for the bears at 2365 or lower.

SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

$238.38

1.61 (0.68%)

SPX

S&P 500

SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
$238.38

1.61 (0.68%)

04/10/17
MSCO
04/10/17
NO CHANGE
MSCO
Morgan Stanley sets S&P 500 'base case' price target of 2,700
Morgan Stanley U.S. Equity Strategist Michael Wilson set a 12-month "base case" price target of 2,700 for the S&P 500, stating that market technicals are in "very good shape" and institutional and retail data suggest U.S. equity positioning is not extreme. A cyclical upturn began a year ago as the global business cycle bottomed in Q1 of 2016 and President Trump's election then "turbocharged" that cycle, said Wilson.
11/01/16
11/01/16
NO CHANGE

S&P 500 breaks support at 2100
The index was last at 2098.91, down over 1.2% on the day. At current price next support is at 2091.75. Resistance is at the 2110 area. A prior note had an incorrect support level of 1991.68, which this note corrects.
08/01/16
GSCO
08/01/16
NO CHANGE
GSCO
Equities downgraded to Underweight over 3 months at Goldman
Goldman analyst led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann downgraded tactically to Underweight over 3 months, but remain Neutral over 12 months, and remains Overweight cash and would look for a reset lower in equities to add positions. The analyst said equities remain expensive and earnings growth is poor, in said equities are now just at the upper end of their 'fat and flat' range.
SPX S&P 500

03/08/17
03/08/17
NO CHANGE

David Tepper says stock market on multiple basis 'kind of full'
Appaloosa Management's David Tepper is speaking in CNBC.
09/06/16
MSCO
09/06/16
NO CHANGE
MSCO
S&P 500 price target raised to 2,300 from 2,200 at Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley analysts led by Adam Parker raised its 12 month price target on the S&P 500 to 2,300 from 2,200, bull case to 2,500 from 2,400, and bear case to 1,800 from 1,600.

TODAY'S FREE FLY STORIES

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IRCP

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DSKE

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ECYT

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ECYT

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  • 02

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PEP

PepsiCo

$117.91

0.38 (0.32%)

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Periodicals
PepsiCo in talks to acquire Vita Coco owner All Market, Reuters reports »

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BCOV

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  • 05

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SHIP

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F

Ford

$10.93

0.07 (0.64%)

, DB

Deutsche Bank

$18.46

-0.39 (-2.07%)

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General news
S&P advances to end week at record as Fed signals no rush to normalize policy »

The S&P 500 (SPX)…

F

Ford

$10.93

0.07 (0.64%)

DB

Deutsche Bank

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BBY

Best Buy

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-2.28 (-3.72%)

HPQ

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BX

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0.11 (0.34%)

NOK

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AAPL

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$153.61

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GM

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$33.07

0.47 (1.44%)

HUN

Huntsman

$24.75

-0.11 (-0.44%)

BF.A

Brown-Forman, also tag with BFA, BFB

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-0.21 (-0.40%)

BF.B

Brown-Forman, also tag with BFA, BFB

$51.73

0.13 (0.25%)

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TIF

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BGNE

BeiGene

$37.42

-0.04 (-0.11%)

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CGI

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CRD

Crawford & Company Inc.

, CRDA

Crawford & Co.

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CRD

Crawford & Company Inc.

CRDA

Crawford & Co.

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SEAS

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DMRC

Digimarc

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IPCI

Intellipharmaceutics

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-0.01 (-0.51%)

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  • 25

    Sep

GWR

Genesee & Wyoming

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PZG

Paramount Gold Nevada

$1.61

0.02 (1.26%)

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SGMO

Sangamo

$7.25

-0.55 (-7.05%)

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  • 06

    Jun

TGTX

TG Therapeutics

$12.05

0.15 (1.26%)

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AVXL

Anavex

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-0.06 (-1.01%)

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EIG

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RNN

Rexahn

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