Action Economics Survey results: It was anything but fundamental
Action Economics Survey results: It was anything but fundamental this past week, and that generated a lot of vol. Not surprisingly, President Trump was again the star, but there was a big supporting cast including former FBI Director Comey, special counsel Mueller, not to mention Brazil's President Temer, while the WannaCry virus made a cameo appearance. President Trump will remain the headliner near term too with the focus on his first trip abroad. The combination of the "Mueller rally" and the possibility of the largest arms deal on record has seen defense stocks surge today. Meanwhile, the gyrations in equities and some weaker than expected data of late, including retail sales and CPI, have reduced market expectations for a June Fed rate hike. However, Survey results showed little change in outlooks, and it's still the case that the Fed funds Median estimate points to a 25 bp tightening, and another in September. There are no crucial data points next week that would alter policy expectations. New and existing home sales are seen dipping back in April after solid gains in March. Durable orders are also projected to fall 1.1% in April, but after posting three consecutive monthly gains. The May employment report is due in two weeks and payrolls are forecast rising 190k, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.4%.