The flat U.S. June CPI figure
The flat U.S. June CPI figure with a 0.1% core price increase tracked estimates, with a 1.6% energy price drop and a flat food price figure that slightly beat assumptions, but with a 0.1% apparel price drop after 0.3%-0.8% declines over the prior three months, a 0.3% new vehicle price drop after 0.2%-0.3% declines over prior four months, and a 0.4% tobacco price drop. Analysts saw upside surprises for medical care services, which rose 0.3% after a 0.1% May drop, and owners' equivalent rent, which rose 0.3% after three consecutive 0.2% gains. The headline figures rounded from -0.023% for CPI and 0.119% for the core. Analysts expect a 0.1% July headline and core CPI rise with a likely flat figure for gasoline prices. The headline y/y increase should rise to 1.7% from 1.6% in June and 1.9% in May, while the "core" y/y remains at the 1.7% of both May and June. Analysts expect a flat headline PCE chain price drop with a 0.1% core price rise that matches today's CPI data, which would trim the y/y chain price gain to 1.3% from 1.4% in May, while the core PCE y/y rate in June should sustain the May fall to 1.4% from 1.5% in April.