The Michigan sentiment drop to 93.1
The Michigan sentiment drop to 93.1 from 95.1 in June left the weakest level since October's 87.2, and a larger gap to the 13-year high of 98.5 in January. The pattern of upward revisions in "final" Michigan sentiment reports is gone, given boosts in just 11 of the last 24 months. Analysts have a 0.1 average downward revision in 2017, after average upward revisions of 0.1 in 2016, 0.4 in 2015, 0.6 in 2014 and 1.8 in 2013. Analysts expect a consumer confidence index drop to 117.0 in July from 118.9 in June, versus a 16-year high of 124.9 in March, but a lower 116.1 prior high in February. For other surveys, the IBD/TIPP index fell to 50.2 from 51.3 in both May and June, versus a 56.4 cycle-high in February. The weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index slipped to a 47.8 average in the first two weeks of July from a 49.3 average in June, versus a 50.6 cycle-high average in both March and April. Despite pull-backs, confidence, producer sentiment and small business optimism have climbed since October alongside a factory rebound that is trimming excess capacity, a flooring in inventories, equity and home price gains, and continued though diminishing hopes for tax cuts and stimulus spending.