Today's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed tiny downside surprises across a wide array of reports that modestly trimmed our estimates, though not by enough to change the overall outlook. For retail sales, analysts saw 0.2% June headline and ex-auto drops that left a weak path into Q3. Analysts left our Q2 GDP estimate at 2.6%, but trimmed our Q3 GDP forecast to 3.1% from 3.4%. For business inventories, analysts saw a 0.3% May rise that tracked estimates, though the retail data modestly underperformed. For industrial production, a 0.4% June rise beat estimates and left a fifth consecutive gain, though analysts saw downward revisions that left a slightly weaker than expected report. For CPI, a flat June figure with a 0.1% core price increase tracked estimates, though these rounded from relatively weak figures of -0.023% for the headline and 0.119% for the core. Finally, Michigan sentiment fell to 93.1 from 95.1 to leave the weakest level since October's 87.2, as analysts continue to give back the post-election climb to the 13-year high of 98.5 in January.