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X

U.S. Steel

$23.35

0.14 (0.60%)

, STLD

Steel Dynamics

$36.69

0.13 (0.36%)

08:55
07/18/17
07/18
08:55
07/18/17
08:55

Morgan Stanley more bullish on second half steel pricing

Following a dinner with steel participants last week, Morgan Stanley analyst Evan Kurtz said he is more bullish on second half 2017 steel pricing. The takeaways were that imports are likely to dip significantly in September and October due to traders not wanting to take the risk of being an "import of record" with the threat of tariffs. Further, the analyst said inventories are low, so even with stable demand, the market could get tight, the analyst wrote. Kurtz raised his HRC forecast for the second half to $625/st from $570/st, and raised his scrap forecast by $30/t. The analyst recommends buying Overweight rated U.S. Steel (X), Steel Dynamics (STLD) and Nucor (NUE).

X

U.S. Steel

$23.35

0.14 (0.60%)

STLD

Steel Dynamics

$36.69

0.13 (0.36%)

NUE

Nucor

$60.12

0.4 (0.67%)

  • 20

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X U.S. Steel
$23.35

0.14 (0.60%)

07/13/17
MSCO
07/13/17
NO CHANGE
MSCO
Morgan Stanley says its time to buy Steels
Morgan Stanley analyst Evan Kurtz met with steel executives last night and came away more bullish on potential second half 2017 pricing strength. Kurtz said steel buyers have been keeping inventories low given the uncertainty of the 232 investigation and he expects imports to drop sharply in September and October as importers likely look to reduce risk from potential 232 penalties ahead. The analyst said demand appears steady and many steel buyers have yet to complete Q3 purchases, and he expects scrap to remain stable near-term. Kurts believes Overweight rated U.S. Steel (X), Steel Dynamics(STLD), and Nucor (NUE) could be strong second half performers given positioning and leverage.
07/03/17
BMOC
07/03/17
NO CHANGE
BMOC
Steel stocks still have positive risk/reward ratio, says BMO Capital
BMO Capital analyst David Gagliano says that "during the past two weeks, the majority of the steel lead-indicators we monitor have either stabilized or started to move higher." He adds that the Trump administration may levy tariffs which will cause imports to drop significantly over the next three to six months. As a result, the analyst believes that the steel stocks "continue to provide a favorable risk/reward opportunity." Publicly traded steel stocks include AK Steel (AKS), United States Steel (X), Nucor Corporation (NUE), and Steel Dynamics (STLD).
06/29/17
COWN
06/29/17
NO CHANGE
Target $7
COWN
Market Perform
Significant upside risk for HRC steel prices near term, says Cowen
Cowen analyst Novid Rassouli noted the Steel Survival conference had an optimistic outlook driven by the government's Section 232 investigation into whether China's import of steel threatened U.S. security. The government is expected to rule this week followed by a decision as to whether to slap a tariff on china steel imports. The analyst said he sees significant upside rice risk for Hot-Rolled Coil, or HRC, steel. Near term, he said he sees an opportunity to play the long side on both AK Steel (AKS) and U.S. Steel (X). Rassouli has a Market Perform rating on both AK Steel and U.S. Steel shares.
06/23/17
06/23/17
UPGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst upgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst upgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Oracle (ORCL) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus with analyst Joseph Bonner saying the company's fourth quarter results show that its cloud business is already having "some success." 2. RH (RH) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank analyst Adam Sindler saying he believes there will be less revenue pull forward from its current inventory correction actions than is expected and he thinks the company, and the bulls, will continue to buy shares on any pull back, driving down its share count. Sindler raised his price target on the parent of Restoration Hardware to $66 from $45. 3. Novartis (NVS) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays with analyst Emmanuel Papadakis citing better than expected CANTOS results. 4. AK Steel (AKS) and U.S. Steel (X) were upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank, while Century Aluminum (CENX) was upgraded to Hold from Sell. 5. Vertex (VRTX) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Needham with analyst Alan Carr saying he predicts Vertex will identify at least one safe and effective triple regimen for commercial launch by the end of 2020. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
STLD Steel Dynamics
$36.69

0.13 (0.36%)

06/19/17
LBOW
06/19/17
NO CHANGE
LBOW
Steel stocks upgraded on positive price outlook at Longbow
As noted earlier, Longbow upgraded steelmakers Nucor (NUE), Steel Dynamics (STLD), U.S. Steel (X) and AK Steel (AKS) to Buy from Hold. After speaking with contacts in the sector, analyst Chris Olin says they expect steel HRC prices to rise $50-$60 per ton, driven by "a (recent) modest uptick in downstream steel orders, inventory adjustments and a large pullback in the number of steel import offers." In the wake of his checks, Olin now sees the chances of near-term government support of the U.S. steel sector in the form of protection from imports at 70%-80%, up from 50% last month. The analyst reports that "some buyers" expect price to rise to $700-$750 per ton following the government action, up from $590-$600 currently. Nucor target $66, Steel Dynamics target $40, U.S. Steel target $30, AK Steel target $10.
06/19/17
LBOW
06/19/17
UPGRADE
LBOW
Buy
Steel Dynamics upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Longbow
NUE Nucor
$60.12

0.4 (0.67%)

06/19/17
LBOW
06/19/17
UPGRADE
LBOW
Buy
Nucor upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Longbow

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