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SAM

Boston Beer

$131.65

-5.65 (-4.12%)

, STZ

Constellation Brands, also tag STZ.B

$196.63

-1.8942 (-0.95%)

10:43
07/24/17
07/24
10:43
07/24/17
10:43

Goldman, seeing weaker beer trends, downgrades two brewers

Goldman Sachs downgraded two beer makers, Boston Beer (SAM) and Constellation Brands (STZ), citing weakening U.S. beer consumption data. The firm downgraded Boston Beer to Sell from Neutral and cut Constellation to Neutral from Buy. Additionally, it took Constellation off its Conviction List. DATA, OUTLOOK: Overall U.S. beer volumes dropped 0.6% in the first half of 2017, reported Goldman analyst Judy Hong. The analyst lowered her 2017 U.S. beer forecast to a decline of 0.7% in 2017, versus her previous outlook for a flat year. She lowered her 2018 forecast to a 0.3% decline from her previous estimate of a 0.1% increase. Hong said that most of the downward adjustments in her forecasts were triggered by her belief that the domestic and craft beer segments have weakened. Imported beer volumes are still growing at a "healthy" rate, she stated. NEGATIVE CATALYSTS: Demographic trends are turning less favorable for alcohol consumption, as there are fewer young people starting to drink and more Baby Boomers are curtailing their drinking, according to Hong. Moreover, beer has lost share to wine and spirits as younger people abandon the drink and spirits prices have moved closer to beer costs, Hong reported. BOSTON BEER: There is "no improvement in sight" for the company's Sam Adams and Angry Orchard brands, warned Hong. The company's fiscal 2017 volume guidance will probably miss expectations, and its volumes will likely decline in 2018, she predicted. As a result, she lowered her 2017 and 2018 EPS estimates for the company by 4% and 9%, respectively. Hong added that her 2018 EPS estimate for the company is now 13% below the consensus outlook, and she set a $110 price target on the stock. CONSTELLATION: Hong noted that Constellation's stock has climbed recently and the analyst says that the company's margin gains will be limited by the recent appreciation of the Mexican peso. Hong trimmed her price target on the stock to $210 from $212. PRICE ACTION: In morning trading, Boston Beer dropped nearly 5% to $130.55 and Constellation slid 1% to $196.50 per share.

SAM

Boston Beer

$131.65

-5.65 (-4.12%)

STZ

Constellation Brands, also tag STZ.B

$196.63

-1.8942 (-0.95%)

STZ.B

Constellation Brands

SAM Boston Beer
$131.65

-5.65 (-4.12%)

05/08/17
SUSQ
05/08/17
NO CHANGE
Target $179
SUSQ
Positive
Susquehanna conviction in Boston Beer increased following investor event
Susquehanna analyst Pablo Zuanic said he has increased conviction in Boston Beer following its investor seminar. Zuanic said there are significant changes taking place at Boston Beer, including new marketing initiatives, brand messaging, sales and distribution push, and a more disciplined approach to cost management. Zuanic reiterated his Positive rating and $179 price target on Boston Beer shares.
06/12/17
COWN
06/12/17
NO CHANGE
Target $126
COWN
Underperform
Boston Beer shares should be sold, says Cowen
Cowen analyst Vivien Azer believes shares of Boston Beer should be sold as its market leading positions within craft beer and cider remain under pressure and represent the potential for continued share losses and risk for further downside guidance revisions. Azer maintained he Underperform rating and $126 price target on Boston Beer shares.
07/24/17
GSCO
07/24/17
DOWNGRADE
GSCO
Sell
Boston Beer downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman Sachs
Goldman analyst Judy Hong downgraded Boston Beer to Sell with a $110 price target saying she sees further downside risk from weaker volumes and believes 2018 will be another year of volume decline and limited margin offset. The analyst lowered her overall US beer volume forecast to down .7% in 2017, versus flat, and down .3% in 2018, versus up .1%, to reflect industry wide softness and sees continued challenges in Boston Beer's core beer and cider portfolio.
07/24/17
07/24/17
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Goldman Sachs (GS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS with analyst Brennan Hawken saying the market seems to be pricing in an inflection in Goldman's trading revenue despite the recent weakness, suggesting a recovery is needed to justify 2018 consensus estimates. 2. Constellation Brands (STZ) downgraded to Neutral from Conviction Buy at Goldman Sachs. 3. Boston Beer (SAM) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman Sachs with analyst Judy Hong saying she sees further downside risk from weaker volumes and believes 2018 will be another year of volume decline and limited margin offset. 4. athenahealth (ATHN) downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at First Analysis with analyst Frank Sparacino saying the valuation at current share levels is ahead of the underlying fundamentals in the short term. 5. PPG (PPG) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at SunTrust and to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
STZ Constellation Brands, also tag STZ.B
$196.63

-1.8942 (-0.95%)

06/30/17
GSCO
06/30/17
NO CHANGE
Target $212
GSCO
Conviction Buy
Constellation Brands price target raised to $212 from $198 at Goldman Sachs
Goldman analyst Judy Hong said Constellation Brands reported a Q1 beat driven by better than expected beer margins that reached 40%, 200bps above her estimate. The analyst expects beer margins to moderate somewhat in second half 2017 but said the beat was encouraging and further earnings upside is likely. Hong raised Constellation Brands' price target to $212 from $198 and reiterated her Conviction Buy rating.
06/30/17
SUSQ
06/30/17
NO CHANGE
Target $169
SUSQ
Neutral
Constellation Brands rally should not be chased, says Susquehanna
Susquehanna analyst Pablo Zuanic noted Constellation Brands posted solid Q1 results and acknowledged the stock is a consensus buy. Despite the results, he said he would not chase the rally and he expects the stock will give back some of its gains in the quarter ahead. Zuanic raised his price target to $169 from $162 on Constellation Brands shares, but maintained his Neutral rating.
07/24/17
GSCO
07/24/17
DOWNGRADE
GSCO
Neutral
Constellation Brands downgraded to Neutral from Conviction Buy at Goldman Sachs
Goldman analyst Judy Hong downgraded Constellation Brands to Neutral from Conviction Buy with a $210 price target, down from $212. The analyst's earnings estimates are still above consensus but said recent Mexican peso appreciation limits margin upside and results in a her trimming earnings estimates.
STZ.B Constellation Brands

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Rogers Corporation

$158.89

1.7 (1.08%)

11:29
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0.18 (0.92%)

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CACC

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$326.25

3.97 (1.23%)

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$NSD

NASDAQ Market Internals

11:17
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$NYE

NYSE Market Internals

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RL

Ralph Lauren

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-3.99 (-3.98%)

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TGT

Target

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TMUS

T-Mobile

$63.48

0.41 (0.65%)

, T

AT&T

$37.75

-0.35 (-0.92%)

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$63.48

0.41 (0.65%)

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-0.35 (-0.92%)

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CMCSK

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CHTR

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$329.99

-1.5 (-0.45%)

VZ

Verizon

$52.82

-0.375 (-0.71%)

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NFLX

Netflix

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Target

$61.72

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AYI

Acuity Brands

$165.44

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10:59
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