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Treasury 30-year bond outlook: this completes the $62 B refunding

Treasury 30-year bond outlook: this completes the $62 B refunding, after mixed demand for the first two legs. The initial 3-year was solid, but yesterday's 10-year suffered mightily from a lack of concession. Currently the wi 30-year yield is nearly 2 basis points lower at 2.815%. It's ranged from 2.81% to 2.83% so far. The weakness in the July PPI report has richened the yield slightly and that could bode poorly for today's sale -- a stop here would be the lowest going back to October. Nevertheless, there remains a hunger for yield and the near 60 basis point pick up to the 10-year may be attractive as it's at the wider end of the recent range going back to June. Also, the 167 basis point pick up to the German 30-year should be a plus. The $12 B July reopening stopped at 2.936% and garnered a 2.31 cover (2.27 average) and a 61.7% indirect bid (62.2% average). Direct bidders took 6.4%, with primary dealers awarded 31.9%.


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