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JCP

J.C. Penney

$4.15

-0.56 (-11.89%)

, JWN

Nordstrom

$44.92

0.05 (0.11%)

10:13
08/11/17
08/11
10:13
08/11/17
10:13

Retail wreckage continues with J.C. Penney report, dragging Nordstrom lower

Shares of J.C. Penney (JCP) added to the retail wreckage of the last few days after reporting a larger than expected loss for the latest quarter, adding to concerns about the broader sector following disappointing reports yesterday from peers Macy's (M) and Kohl's (KSS). Separately, higher-end peer Nordstrom (JWN) bucked the trend of declining sales in the sector, reporting a comparable store sales gain for its latest quarter and raising guidance. While Nordstrom shares briefly went into the green, they declined following the market open as the sector gives back some of the gains seen in the run-up to this week's reports. J.C. PENNEY: J.C. Penney reported an adjusted loss per share for the second quarter of (9c), compared to forecasts for a (5c) loss. Comp sales slid 1.3%, falling below the retailer's fiscal year guidance. The comp sales decline for the quarter resulted in a positive two-year stack of 0.9%, the company said. Despite misses on the EPS and comp sales lines, revenue of $2.96B beat forecasts of $2.84B. CEO Marvin Ellison said that while the broader retail sector "remains challenged," all categories delivered improved sales results during the quarter, with beauty, home refresh and omnichannel continuing to deliver positive sales growth. On the company's earnings call, Ellison said there was greater margin and EPS dilution than expected during the quarter following the liquidation of inventory in 127 closing stores, but said he believes this was "isolated" to Q2. Looking ahead, J.C. Penney backed its guidance for fiscal 2017 adjusted EPS of 40c-65c and SSS down 1%-up 1% and said it expects improved results in the back half of the year. Ellison said that July's sales trend has carried into the early back-to-school season. NORDSTROM: Nordstrom, meanwhile, yesterday reported EPS of 65c, beating analysts' estimates of 64c, and total revenue of $3.79B also beat the $3.75B consensus. Comp sales for the quarter were up 1.7% compared to last year and followed an 0.8% decline last quarter. Nordstrom raised its FY17 adjusted EPS view to $2.85-$3.00 from $2.75-$3.00, revenue growth view to roughly 4% from 3%-4% and backed its SSS growth view of approximately flat. Nordstrom said that its recent Anniversary Sale, historically its largest event of the year, performed better than recent trends. WHAT'S NOTABLE: Mall-based retailers have been hurt by the increasing popularity of fast-fashion retailers like Zara, Forever 21 and H&M, as well as an increase in online shopping. Nordstrom said in June that members of its founding family formed a group to explore the possibility of pursuing a "going private" transaction, but Women's Wear Daily recently said that the retailer is not in negotiations with "anybody" regarding a potential sale. Talks continue with potential parties to a deal, though they are described as informal, the report noted. PEERS: Yesterday, sector peer Macy's (M) sunk after reporting another quarter of declining comps, though its EPS and revenue were above analysts' estimates. While Macy's backed its guidance for FY17, it forecast third quarter comp sales on an owned plus licensed basis down 2.5% "or worse" and fall season comp sales on an owned plus licensed basis to be down 0.8% to down 2.6%. Gross margin for the year is expected to be down 50-70bps vs. last year, better than previous guidance. CFO Karen Hoguet said that there was "not a lot new" on Macy's real estate initiatives since June's investor meeting and that work on its Herald Square location "continues." Kohl's also reported earnings yesterday, with EPS and revenue narrowly beating estimates, though its comp sales declined 0.4% from the year ago period. "The traffic momentum that we saw in the combined March/April period accelerated in the second quarter," CEO Kevin Mansell said in a statement. "Though transactions for the quarter were lower than last year, July transactions increased. We are also excited by the sequential sales trend improvement in all our lines." Kohl's said it is "on track" to achieve its financial goals for the year. On its earnings call, Mansell reiterated that Kohl's sees an opportunity to capture sales from competitors' stores that are closing, which may include closing stores from Macy's and J.C. Penney. Another peer, Dillard's (DDS), also reported earnings yesterday, reporting much weaker than expected EPS on sales that missed estimates. CEO William Dillard, commented that "Significant markdowns led to a disappointing loss as we dealt with inventory, which was up 2% at quarter end." ANALYST COMMENTARY: Credit Suisse analyst Christian Buss said this morning that "continued caution is in order" following J.C. Penney's Q2 report, as he sees core operating profitability declining and underlying demand still being "tepid." UBS analyst Michael Binetti said that while Macy's results were better than expected, guidance for the second half has damaged confidence that positive trends are sustainable. The analyst maintained his Neutral rating on Macy's but cut his price target to $21 from $23. Meanwhile, Kohl's was upgraded to Hold from Reduce at Gordon Haskett and to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse. PRICE ACTION: In morning trading, J.C. Penney is off earlier lows, but still down 17% to $3.91, while Nordstrom is down 2% to $44 per share.

JCP

J.C. Penney

$4.15

-0.56 (-11.89%)

JWN

Nordstrom

$44.92

0.05 (0.11%)

M

Macy's

$21.00

0.33 (1.60%)

KSS

Kohl's

$40.07

0.57 (1.44%)

DDS

Dillard's

$60.71

-0.99 (-1.60%)

  • 11

    Aug

  • 23

    Aug

  • 09

    Nov

JCP J.C. Penney
$4.15

-0.56 (-11.89%)

08/11/17
FBCO
08/11/17
NO CHANGE
FBCO
Underperform
J.C. Penney core operating profitability declining, says Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse analyst Christian Buss, in a research bulletin issued on the heels of J.C. Penney's Q2 report, said "continued caution is in order" as he sees it core operating profitability declining and underlying demand still being "tepid." He has an Underperform rating on J.C. Penney shares, which are down 23% in pre-market trading.
08/11/17
TLSY
08/11/17
DOWNGRADE
TLSY
Market Perform
J.C. Penney downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Telsey Advisory
07/12/17
SBSH
07/12/17
NO CHANGE
Target $5
SBSH
Neutral
J.C. Penney price target raised to $5 from $4.50 at Citi
Citi analyst Paul Lejuez raised his price target for J.C. Penney to $5 from $4.50 after the retailer announced that Q2 sales had "significantly improved" versus Q1. The analyst upped his FY17 earnings per share estimate to 53c from 40c and keeps a Neutral rating on Penny.
06/26/17
GDHS
06/26/17
UPGRADE
Target $4.5
GDHS
Accumulate
J.C. Penney upgraded to Hold from Reduce at Gordon Haskett
Gordon Haskett analyst Chuck Grom upgraded J.C. Penney to Hold from Reduce with a $4.50 price target.
JWN Nordstrom
$44.92

0.05 (0.11%)

07/14/17
JPMS
07/14/17
NO CHANGE
JPMS
Underweight
JPMorgan keeps Underweight on Nordstrom after management meetings
JPMorgan analyst Matthew Boss keeps an Underweight rating on Nordstrom (JWN) after meeting management at the company's headquarters. Management would not comment on their evaluation of strategic alternatives and the meeting was reshuffled to exclude members of the Nordstrom family while incoming CFO Anne Bramman attended but did not actively participate, Boss tells investors in a research note. The analyst views the company's EBITDA roadmap as "increasingly uncertain" with a greater emphasis on fashion to differentiate mix versus Amazon.com (AMZN) and rising costs of customer acquisition. He believes the retailer's fundamental multi-year risk profile is elevated.
06/21/17
GDHS
06/21/17
NO CHANGE
GDHS
Nike-Amazon pact yet another department store headwind, says Gordon Haskett
Gordon Haskett analyst noted the reports of Nike (NKE) nearing a deal to sell directly on Amazon (AMZN), which he said wouldn't impact trends overnight but would represent another headwind for department stores, particularly J.C. Penney (JCP) and Kohl's (KSS), where the brand has a larger penetration than at Macy's (M) and Nordstrom (JWN). He keeps an Accumulate rating on Nordstrom, a Hold rating on Macy's and Reduce rating on both J.C. Penney and Kohl's.
06/14/17
CLVD
06/14/17
NO CHANGE
CLVD
Nordstrom Q2 comps likely trending below consensus at Cleveland Research
06/09/17
06/09/17
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Snap (SNAP) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citi with analyst Mark May saying a slower than expected roll-out of new platforms and channels like self-serve is slowing down the pace of monetization growth. 2. Domino's Pizza (DPZ) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Longbow with analyst Alton Stump saying his checks indicate second quarter domestic franchised comparables are up 6.25%-6.75%, versus consensus of 7.4%, and recommends investors take a pause on putting new money to work given recent share strength. 3. Nordstrom (JWN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim with analyst Michael Binetti saying he does not see much further upside potential, even in a leveraged buyout scenario. The analyst believes a going private buyer could only pay $46 per share to generate a 10% internal rate of return. 4. Cantel Medical (CMD) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Benchmark with analyst Raymond Myers saying that he is increasingly concerned that its comparisons become tougher in the next two quarters. 5. Endo (ENDP) downgraded to Hold following Opana ER removal from market at Stifel with analyst Annabel Samimy saying Endo's recovery "just got harder" following the FDA's request for the company to voluntarily remove Opana ER from the market. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
M Macy's
$21.00

0.33 (1.60%)

08/11/17
UBSW
08/11/17
NO CHANGE
Target $21
UBSW
Neutral
Macy's Q2 better than feared, guidance hurts confidence, says UBS
UBS analyst Michael Binetti said Macy's reported Q2 results that were better than feared, but its second half guidance has damaged the confidence that its positive trends are sustainable. The analyst lowered his estimates and his price target to $21 from $23. Binetti maintained his Neutral rating on Macy's shares.
05/12/17
COWN
05/12/17
NO CHANGE
Target $29
COWN
Market Perform
Macy's financial modeling worrisome, says Cowen
Cowen analyst Oliver Chen said the rapid transformation of consumers' shopping preferences presents ongoing challenges to Macy's and other retailers. He said the company needs to reinvent promotional techniques that currently are yielding poor store traffic and higher markdowns. Chen said from a financial modeling perspective he is worried, leading him to maintain his Market Perform rating on Macy's shares and cut his price target to $29 from $44.
06/07/17
GSCO
06/07/17
NO CHANGE
Target $25
GSCO
Neutral
Macy's price target lowered to $25 from $28 at Goldman Sachs
Goldman analyst Lindsay Drucker Mann lowerd Macy's price target to $25 from $28 to reflect weaker margin trends and operating earnings following the company's Investor Day. The analyst is encouraged by the detail around strategic initiatives and has confidence in -3-4% FY17 comp guidance range. Shares are Neutral rated.
KSS Kohl's
$40.07

0.57 (1.44%)

08/10/17
JEFF
08/10/17
NO CHANGE
JEFF
Kohl's shares defended at Jefferies
08/08/17
OTRG
08/08/17
UPGRADE
OTRG
Mixed
Kohl's upgraded to Mixed from Negative at OTR Global
OTR Global raised its view on Kohl's to Mixed following checks that indicate Q2 sell-through at least met its plan with most vendors surveyed.
08/10/17
GDHS
08/10/17
UPGRADE
GDHS
Hold
Kohl's upgraded to Hold from Reduce at Gordon Haskett
Gordon Haskett upgraded Kohl's to Hold saying earnings downside looks limited post today's results. The firm raised its price target for the shares to $37 from $36.
08/10/17
FBCO
08/10/17
UPGRADE
FBCO
Neutral
Kohl's upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse
DDS Dillard's
$60.71

-0.99 (-1.60%)

08/10/17
JPMS
08/10/17
NO CHANGE
Target $36
JPMS
Underweight
Dillard's price target lowered to $36 from $49 at JPMorgan
JPMorgan analyst Matthew Boss lowered his price target on Dillard's to $36 from $49 and reiterated an Underweight rating on the stock after the company reported quarterly losses, which it attributed to "significant markdowns" to deal with its inventory.
02/10/17
SUSQ
02/10/17
INITIATION
Target $60
SUSQ
Neutral
Dillard's initiated with a Neutral at Susquehanna
Target $60.
09/28/16
09/28/16
UPGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst upgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst upgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Workday (WDAY) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Wedbush with analyst Steve Koenig citing second-half 2016 sales potential, following a first-half which he thinks wasn't as good as generally perceived. 2. Dillard's (DDS) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse with analyst Michael Exstein citing the company's consistency in capital allocation and its valuation, which he says is at the low end of its historic trading range. 3. Cypress Energy (CELP) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel analyst Michael Hoffman saying the CEO is upbeat on the company's outlook and its ability to maintain its distribution at current levels. 4. Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank with analyst Matt O'Connor saying the 15% pullback in the shares since the FirstMerit (FMER) deal was announced is overdone. 5. Hi-Crush Partners (HCLP) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS with analyst Shneur Gershuni saying recent commentary from oil field service companies indicate an increase in sand demand and intensity. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
09/28/16
FBCO
09/28/16
UPGRADE
Target $70
FBCO
Outperform
Dillard's upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse analyst Michael Exstein upgraded Dillard's to Outperform citing the company's consistency in capital allocation and its valuation, which he says is at the low end of its historic trading range. Dillard's will continue to reduce overall debt and buy back stock, Exstein tells investors in a research note. He raised his price target for the shares to $70 from $63. The analyst coupled the upgrade with a downgrade of Macy's (M) to Neutral.

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0.14 (0.68%)

10:16
11/24/17
11/24
10:16
11/24/17
10:16
Conference/Events
Knoll management to meet with Sidoti »

Meeting to be held in the…

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
Barclays

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