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JASO

JA Solar

$6.33

0.11 (1.77%)

, JKS

JinkoSolar

10:38
08/24/17
08/24
10:38
08/24/17
10:38

Battleground: One analyst raises China solar forecast, another sees margin risk

Two research firms had divergent views on the solar energy sector, as Roth Capital significantly raised its forecast for Chinese solar energy installations, but Axiom warned that solar energy margins could hit record low levels. ROTH HIKES ESTIMATE: Roth Capital analyst Philip Shen increased his forecast for 2017 Chinese solar installations to 48 gigawatts from 43 gigawatts, noting that data from China's two electric grid operators indicate that more than 12 gigawatts of solar energy were connected to the country's grid last month, versus a previous estimate of 10.5 gigawatts by the China Electric Counci. Additionally, Shen now expects 19 gigawatts of small solar energy systems to be installed in the country this year, up from his previous forecast of 14 gigawatts. Shen said that he raised his forecast because government subsidies for such systems are now expected to decline in the second half of this year. Separately, the analyst published updated prices for solar energy products, as reported by the website PV Insights. Th price of C-SI modules were quoted at 32c per watt, down 0.6% from last week and down 10.3% this year. The price of multi cells fell 0.9% this week and are unchanged this year. Meanwhile, the price of polysilicon, a raw material used to make the products, was unchanged this week and is up 1.2% this year. AXIOM BEARISH ON JA SOLAR: Analyst Gordon L Johnson III says his recent checks indicate that Chinese and global prices for modules and cells dropped slightly last week. Meanwhile, spot prices for polysilicon and multi wafers, which are also used to make solar modules and cells, rose sharply from July 12 to August 9 and have since been stable, Johnson reported. As a result, the analyst calculates that companies which bought the raw materials at spot prices have seen their margins on solar cells fall to a record low -12.9%, while module makers who bought the raw materials at spot prices have margins of -3.7%, the lowest level since Axiom began tracking the metric. Given these trends, Johnson predicted that JA Solar (JASO) would report a Q3 pretax loss of $10M and warned that the company's results could deteriorate further in Q4. Johnson's Q3 forecast for JA Solar assumes that the company's shipments will come in at 1.7 gigawatts, which is the midpoint of its guidance, and that its average selling price will be "an aggressive" 36c per watt. PRICE ACTION: In morning trading, JA Solar rose fractionally to $6.35, JinkoSolar (JKS) was little changed and Canadian Solar added 1.5%. Other publicly traded companies in the solar space include First Solar (FSLR), SunPower (SPWR), Trina Solar (TSL) and Yingli Green Energy (YGE).

JASO

JA Solar

$6.33

0.11 (1.77%)

JKS

JinkoSolar

CSIQ

Canadian Solar

$15.18

0.11 (0.73%)

YGE

Yingli Green Energy

$2.51

-0.01 (-0.40%)

FSLR

First Solar

$46.48

-0.11 (-0.24%)

SPWR

SunPower

$9.05

0.14 (1.57%)

TSL

Trina Solar

  • 06

    Sep

JASO JA Solar
$6.33

0.11 (1.77%)

07/19/17
AXIO
07/19/17
UPGRADE
Target $7
AXIO
Hold
JA Solar upgraded to Hold from Sell at Axiom
Axiom analyst Gordon L. Johnson II upgraded JA Solar to Hold from Sell stating that he believes the company will "opportunistically attack" the U.S. market as long as the bull market for solar panels is "in play". The company's standing $9.69 per share take private offer from its CEO caps the stock's upside, however, added Johnson, who raised his price target on JA Solar to $7 from $3.
04/18/17
OTRG
04/18/17
NO CHANGE
OTRG
Solar PV Manufacturers downgraded to Negative from Mixed at OTR Global
OTR Global view on crystalline PV producers in the solar integrator market was downgraded to Negative from Mixed following checks that indicate global crystalline PV prices fell in Q1 and inventories increased. Further 2017 Chinese installations are expected at 27-28GW, below 34.21 GW in 2016.
03/24/17
JPMS
03/24/17
NO CHANGE
Target $38
JPMS
Neutral
JPMorgan cuts solar targets amid industry capacity additions
JPMorgan analyst Paul Coster lowered his estimates for First Solar (FSLR) and SunPower (SPWR) on the belief that it will take longer than expected for industry supply and demand to find balance. The analyst is "skeptical" on the timing of an industry recovery with Chinese-based competitors including Canadian Solar (CSIQ), JinkoSolar (JKS) and JA Solar (JASO) increasing module capacity. Coster lowered his price target for Neutral-rated First Solar to $38 from $41 and for Neutral-rated SunPower to $8 from $9.
08/24/17
AXIO
08/24/17
NO CHANGE
AXIO
JA Solar likely to report Q3 loss, says Axiom
Axiom analyst Gordon L Johnson III says his recent checks indicate that China and global prices for modules and cell dropped slightly last week, while spot prices for polysilicon and multi wafers used to make solar modules and cells rose sharply from July 12 to August 9 and have since been stable. As a result, the analyst calculates that companies which bought the raw materials at spot prices have seen their margins on solar cells fall to a record low -12.9%, while module makers who bought the raw materials at spot prices have margins of -3.7%, the lowest level since Axiom began tracking them. Given these trends, Johnson predicts that JA Solar will report a Q3 pretax loss of $10M and warns that the company's results could deteriorate further in Q4. Other publicly traded companies in the space include Canadian Solar (CSIQ), First Solar (FSLR), SunEdison (SUNEQ), SunPower (SPWR), Trina Solar (TSL) and Yingli Green Energy (YGE).
JKS JinkoSolar

08/22/17
FBCO
08/22/17
DOWNGRADE
Target $25
FBCO
Neutral
JinkoSolar downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse analyst Maheep Mandloi downgraded JinkoSolar to Neutral and raised his price target to $25 from $20 saying current valuation does not reflect oversupply in 2018+. The analyst raised Jinko estimates well above consensus as demand improves and higher efficiency products but said investors are too "exuberant" on demand growth.
08/15/17
COKE
08/15/17
NO CHANGE
COKE
Sell
Coker Palmer calls JinkoSolar's capital market activity 'egregious'
JinkoSolar's (JKS) $200M mixed securities shelf filing this morning it its third secondary since the initial public offering, Coker Palmer writes in a research note. The company's capital market activity and spending are "egregious" and not helping the industry return to a more rationale pricing environment, the firm contends. Coker believes JinkoSolar is unlikely to generate any free cash flow in 2017/2018. It continues to recommend being long Canadian Solar (CSIQ) and short Jinko.
05/26/17
05/26/17
DOWNGRADE
Target $16.4

Underweight
JinkoSolar downgraded two notches to Underweight at Morgan Stanley
As previously reported, Morgan Stanley downgraded JinkoSolar two notches to Underweight from Overweight and lowered its price target to $16.40 from $19.40. Analyst Sheng Zhong expects Q1 earnings to decline over 50% below Street estimates mainly due to lower margins and ASPs, and slow cost reductions given high polysilicon prices and OEM fees. The analyst also notes increased new capacity coming online and believes a majority of manufacturers will have difficulty reaching breakeven in 2H 2017 and 2018.
05/26/17
05/26/17
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) downgraded to Neutral on balanced risk/reward at Buckingham with the firm citing more balanced risk/reward at current levels and raised its price target to $330 from $325. 2. JinkoSolar (JKS) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citi and to Underweight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley. 3. Signet Jewelers (SIG) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at CL King with the firm citing lack of catalysts. 4. TripAdvisor (TRIP) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Macquarie with analyst Matthew Brooks saying the "best days" may be over for TripAdvisor and believes Google (GOOGL) is at the "top of the travel funnel." 5. Shire (SHPG) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein with analyst Aaron Gal saying he believes risks to longer term earnings from competition and slowing Vyvanse sales are not being factored into consensus estimates. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
CSIQ Canadian Solar
$15.18

0.11 (0.73%)

08/21/17
LEHM
08/21/17
DOWNGRADE
Target $14
LEHM
Underweight
Canadian Solar downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
Barclays analyst Jon Windham downgraded Canadian Solar to Underweight following Q2 results saying it faces risks from the possible delay of project sales and pricing, soft investor demand for a J-REIT listing in the second half, and risks from the September 22 injury vote in the US ITC 201 trade case. Windham raised Canadian Solar's price target to $14 from $12.
08/21/17
08/21/17
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Nike (NKE) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies, with analyst Randal Konik saying valuation is expensive and the competitive landscape could make share gains and margin expansion difficult. Konik added Adidas' (ADDYY) success in reviving its brand appeal in North America has had a clear impact on Nike shares. 2. Foot Locker (FL) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS and Finish Line (FINL) cut to Sell from Neutral by analyst Michael Binetti, who said Foot Locker's results were worse than the analyst expected and make it tougher to support a thesis that athletic retail will be able to sidestep the structural challenges of the broader sector. Binetti downgraded Finish Line based on the structural risks exposed by Foot Locker exposed in its Q2 report. 3. Barclays analyst Lydia Rainforth downgraded Total (TOT) and Repsol (REPYY) to Equal Weight from Overweight and Statoil (STO) and Eni SpA (E) to Underweight from Equal Weight citing relative valuation. 4. Canadian Solar (CSIQ) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays, with analyst Jon Windham saying it faces risks from the possible delay of project sales and pricing, soft investor demand for a J-REIT listing in the second half, and risks from the September 22 injury vote in the US ITC 201 trade case. 5. Infosys (INFY) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
YGE Yingli Green Energy
$2.51

-0.01 (-0.40%)

11/16/16
11/16/16
DOWNGRADE

Sell
SolarCity downgraded to Sell from Hold at Axiom
As previously reported, Axiom analyst Gordon Johnson II downgraded SolarCity (SCTY) to Sell from Hold given his new outlook on falling support for solar in the U.S., and via contagion abroad, following the election of Donald Trump. He is also less bullish on Chinese module prices given profit-dilutive quotes being submitted by Chinese module company's in association with the government's "Top-Runner" program. Axiom also downgraded several other stocks in the solar space - JA Solar (JASO), Trina Solar (TSL) and Yingli Green Energy (YGE) - all to Sell from Buy this morning, citing the same concerns.
11/16/16
11/16/16
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Sysco (SYY) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse with analyst Edward Kelly saying Sysco shares are up 50% over the last 18 months and now views risk/reward as balanced. 2. Teva (TEVA) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies, to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley, and to Neutral from Buy at BTIG. 3. Bank of America (BAC) Capital One (COF) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Baird while the firm downgraded Fifth Third (FITB) to Underperform from Neutral. 4. Zions Bancorp (ZION) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley and to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein. 5. Yingli Green Energy (YGE) downgraded to Sell from Buy at Axiom while the firm downgraded SolarCity (SCTY) and JA Solar (JASO) to Sell from Hold. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
FSLR First Solar
$46.48

-0.11 (-0.24%)

07/26/17
ROTH
07/26/17
NO CHANGE
Target $55
ROTH
Buy
First Solar price target raised to $55 from $40 at Roth Capital
Roth Capital analyst Philip Shen raised his price for First Solar to $55 from $40 as he sees momentum taking the stock higher given Section 201 and the resulting improved economic prospects for the company. The analyst reiterates a Buy rating on the shares.
07/28/17
COWN
07/28/17
NO CHANGE
Target $57
COWN
Outperform
First Solar price target raised to $57 from $52 at Cowen
Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne raised his price target on First Solar to $57 from $52 following Q2 results. The analyst cited the Section 201 ruling that has led to an increase in U.S. prices, which could favor the 300-500MW of remaining Series 4 supply. Long-term earnings power stems from Series 6, which is on track for production in 2018, said Osborne, who reiterated his Outperform rating on First Solar.
08/16/17
JMPS
08/16/17
NO CHANGE
JMPS
First Solar price target raised to $67 from $53 at JMP Securities
JMP Securities analyst Joseph Osha raised his price target on First Solar after attending a U.S. International Trade Commission hearing on the Section 201 petition. The analyst now believes there is a 75% chance of the commission determining that an injury has been committed, up from 50% previously. He keeps an Outperform rating on the stock.
SPWR SunPower
$9.05

0.14 (1.57%)

04/17/17
AXIO
04/17/17
INITIATION
Target $18
AXIO
Buy
Canadian Solar rises after Axiom starts with a Buy
Shares of Canadian Solar (CSIQ) are higher in early trading after Axiom analyst Gordon Johnson initiated the stock with a Buy rating and an $18 price target, as previously reported by The Fly. Johnson sees Canadian Solar as having a unique level of "sellable, in-the-money," U.S., Chinese, and Japanese solar assets, leaving it positioned similarly to how First Solar (FSLR) and SunPower (SPWR) were in mid 2012 when those two had the same type of unique positioning relative to solar industry peers. From late June 2012 to the end of 2015, shares of First Solar and SunPower advanced 526% and 338%, respectively, far outpacing the gains of their industry peers, said Johnson, who now sees a similar set-up for Canadian Solar. In early trading, Canadian Solar shares have risen 63c, or about 5%, to $13.35.
04/06/17
BARD
04/06/17
NO CHANGE
Target $16
BARD
Outperform
8point3 Energy price target lowered to $16 from $20 at Baird
Baird analyst Ben Kallo lowered his price target on 8point3 Energy (CAFD) to $16 from $20 following Q1 earnings. Despite beating earnings estimates the shares are likely to be under pressure following the decision by First Solar (FSLR) and SunPower (SPWR) to consider strategic alternatives for their respective interests in the company, said Kallo. Bears will believe the company will not be able to support growth without additional dropdowns, but he feels the current operating portfolio should support growth through 2018. Kallo maintained his Outperform rating on 8point3 Energy shares.
07/25/17
BOFA
07/25/17
NO CHANGE
BOFA
Solar sector may be bottoming, First Solar best positioned, says BofA/Merrill
BofA/Merrill analyst Krish Sankar believes the Solar sector may have bottomed in Q2 2017 with installs falling about 23% compared to Q2 2016 as last year's rush was driven by fears of an ITC expiration. Sankar believes global demand is set to increase 2% in 2017, followed by mid-to-high single digit growth going forward. His top solar pick heading into earnings is First Solar (FSLR), followed by Buy rated Veeco (VECO) in the energy efficiency/LED space. The analyst remains sidelined, until there is clarity on future sponsors, in SunPower (SPWR) and 8Point3 (CAFD).
TSL Trina Solar

11/09/16
MSCO
11/09/16
NO CHANGE
MSCO
Trina Solar named a short research tactical idea at Morgan Stanley
11/16/16
AXIO
11/16/16
DOWNGRADE
AXIO
Sell
Trina Solar downgraded to Sell from Buy at Axiom
Axiom analyst Gordon Johnson II downgraded Trina Solar to Sell from Buy given his new outlook on falling support for solar in the U.S., and via contagion abroad, following the election of Donald Trump. He is also less bullish on Chinese module prices given profit-dilutive quotes being submitted by Chinese module company's in association with the government's "Top-Runner" program.

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Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
Barclays

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LGND

Ligand

$140.31

-1.4 (-0.99%)

17:18
11/17/17
11/17
17:18
11/17/17
17:18
Hot Stocks
Ligand director sells 5,000 common shares »

In a regulatory filing,…

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
Barclays

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LGND

Ligand

$140.31

-1.4 (-0.99%)

17:17
11/17/17
11/17
17:17
11/17/17
17:17
Hot Stocks
Ligand CFO sells 6,559 common shares »

In a regulatory filing,…

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
Barclays

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LGND

Ligand

$140.31

-1.4 (-0.99%)

17:17
11/17/17
11/17
17:17
11/17/17
17:17
Hot Stocks
Ligand CEO sells 5,269 common shares »

In a regulatory filing,…

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
Barclays

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MBI

MBIA

$9.01

0.13 (1.46%)

17:15
11/17/17
11/17
17:15
11/17/17
17:15
Hot Stocks
Breaking Hot Stocks news story on MBIA »

Fine Capital Partners…

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
Barclays

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RBCN

Rubicon

$8.07

0.1218 (1.53%)

17:03
11/17/17
11/17
17:03
11/17/17
17:03
Hot Stocks
Breaking Hot Stocks news story on Rubicon »

Bandera Partners reports…

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
Barclays

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