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ULTA

Ulta Beauty

$233.71

1.65 (0.71%)

, AMZN

Amazon.com

$952.45

-5.55 (-0.58%)

10:50
08/25/17
08/25
10:50
08/25/17
10:50

Ulta drops as sales growth slows amid Amazon, department store competition

Shares of Ulta Beauty (ULTA) plunged in early trading after reporting quarterly comparable sales that declined from last year. Ulta's report comes as department stores are discounting high-end cosmetics and as consumers shift to shopping online and away from physical stores. EARNINGS: After the market close on Thursday, Ulta reported second quarter earnings per share of $1.83 on revenue of $1.29B, beating analysts' estimates of $1.78 and $1.28B, respectively. Comparable sales were up 11.7%, driven by 5.5% transaction growth and 6.2% growth in average ticket, but that figure was below the 14.4% SSS growth Ulta experienced last year. Looking ahead, Ulta forecast third quarter EPS of $1.63-$1.68, at the low end of analysts' $1.68 consensus, on revenue of $1.331B-$1.353B, compared with estimates of $1.33B. Comp sales for Q3, including e-commerce, are expected to increase 9%-11%, below the year-ago increase of 16.7%. At the same time, Ulta raised its fiscal 2017 EPS growth view to the high 20% range from mid 20s and its FY17 SSS growth view to about 10%-11% from 9%-11%. Commenting on the quarter, Ulta said the company decided to prioritize earnings growth over comp sales growth, and, as a result, chose "not to run incremental promotions in July in order to comp over significant clearance activity" at the end of last year's Q2. Management noted that the company expects online sales to grow 50%-60% vs. its previous 50% view. Additionally, as other retailers are closing stores, Ulta is adding locations, saying that it will open about 100 new stores this year and remodel 11 locations. WHAT'S NOTABLE: Ulta's earnings report comes amid a more difficult retail environment. In July, Oppenheimer analyst Rupesh Parikh downgraded Ulta to Perform citing "softer" commentary from L'Oreal (LRLCY) on its earnings call regarding trends in its North American beauty business, increasing promotional activity from the department store channel and more difficult year-over-year comparisons that "could now signal a potentially more challenging beauty backdrop going forward." Additionally, online sites like Amazon (AMZN) are a threat. Amazon is said to be considering a partnership deal with Violet Grey, an "editorially driven online shopping destination" for luxury beauty products, according to a July report in WWD. Such a deal could potentially help Amazon land more prestige beauty brands, sources added to the publication at the time. Ulta also faces competition from department stores like Macy's (M), which are discounting high-end cosmetics and offering rewards. "The rapidly evolving retail environment is not new and we have never been complacent," Ulta CEO Mary Dillon said yesterday. ANALYST COMMENTARY: Analysts were mixed following Ulta's report, with Baird analyst Mark Altschwager cutting his price target to $295, citing lack of comp upside, expectations for higher margins, and competitive threats. BMO Capital's Shannon Coyne downgraded the stock to Outperform, citing the slowing beauty market, more promotional department stores and Amazon potentially gaining access to prestige brands. Meanwhile, Loop Capital analyst Anthony Chukumba said he has a difficult time finding anything in Ulta's report that makes him any less enthusiastic about the stock, but he also noted growing investor valuation concerns. Piper Jaffray analyst Erinn Murphy noted that Ulta Beauty's Q2 gross margin, which was an area of investor focus ahead of the company's report, outperformed expectations and she said Ulta "continues to play offense in the industry." Evercore ISI analyst Omar Saad said Ulta Beauty continues to be a favorite Long Position in the firm's Model Portfolio. PRICE ACTION: Ulta Beauty is down 10.5% to $209.16 in morning trading. Sally Beauty (SBH), another pure-play beauty products retailer, is down nearly 1%.

ULTA

Ulta Beauty

$233.71

1.65 (0.71%)

AMZN

Amazon.com

$952.45

-5.55 (-0.58%)

LRLCY

L'Oreal

$42.55

0.31 (0.73%)

M

Macy's

$21.01

0.32 (1.55%)

SBH

Sally Beauty

$17.86

-0.16 (-0.89%)

  • 06

    Sep

  • 12

    Sep

ULTA Ulta Beauty
$233.71

1.65 (0.71%)

08/25/17
08/25/17
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Twitter (TWTR) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies by analyst Brent Hill, who prefers Google (GOOGL), Facebook (FB) and Snap (SNAP) as plays on the digital video transition occurring across the social media space. Thill, who thinks Twitter will underperform broader internet and social peers, acknowledged that investors might ask why he is not advising to sell the stock, but he thinks recent management changes could improve the company's declining ARPU in the near-term. 2. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital by analyst Shannon Coyne, who said that there are bright spots ahead for the company, but sees "clouds on the horizon" looking ahead, including a slowing beauty market and department stores that are "upping their collective game." 3. Hormel Foods (HRL) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse by analyst Robert Moskow, who said increased volatility in the protein markets has reduced earnings visibility and his confidence in FY2020 margin targets of 15-19%. Moskow sees further risk from the pork industry's 10% expansion in slaughter capacity. 4. TripAdvisor (TRIP) and Shutterstock (SSTK) downgraded to Underperform from Hold at Jefferies. 5. Domino's Pizza (DPZ) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus by analyst John Staszak due to concerns about slowing international revenue combined with a potential for a comparable slowdown in domestic sales. The analyst now expects Domino's to post mid-single-digit comp growth following years of double-digit growth and believes margin gains will be limited going forward as the company invests in the business. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
08/25/17
EVER
08/25/17
NO CHANGE
EVER
Outperform
Ulta Beauty continues to be a favorite Long Position, says Evercore ISI
Evercore ISI analyst Omar Saad said Ulta Beauty continues to be a favorite Long Position in the firm's Model Portfolio despite share price underperformance and increased controversy surrounding it. The analyst said double-digit sales and earnings continue, which means the share price contraction is due to multiple compression, but these "superb" Q2 results should go a long way in alleviating concerns. Saad reiterates his Buy rating on Ulta and raised his estimates.
08/25/17
BARD
08/25/17
NO CHANGE
Target $295
BARD
Outperform
Ulta Beauty price target lowered to $295 from $335 at Baird
Baird analyst Mark Altschwager lowered his price target on Ulta Beauty to $295 from $335 following Q2 results. The analyst cited the lack of comp upside, expectations for higher margins, and competitive threats as weighing on valuation. Altschwager maintained his Outperform rating on Ulta Beauty shares.
08/25/17
COWN
08/25/17
NO CHANGE
Target $336
COWN
Outperform
Ulta Beauty weakness a buying opportunity, says Cowen
Cowen analyst Oliver Chen said Ulta Beauty reported industry leading comps, gross margins, and earnings growth. He said shares could be weak following guidance, which he views as conservative, but he would use the weakness as a buying opportunity. Chen reiterated his Outperform rating and $336 price target on Ulta Beauty shares.
AMZN Amazon.com
$952.45

-5.55 (-0.58%)

08/25/17
BARD
08/25/17
NO CHANGE
Target $200
BARD
Outperform
Costco risk/reward favorable for patient investors, says Baird
Baird analyst Peter Benedict said Costco's (COST) selloff since Amazon's (AMZN) announcement of its deal to buy Whole Foods (WFM) has vastly improved its valuation profile, suggesting a favorable risk/reward for patient investors. The analyst said easing comps, steady traffic, and emerging ticket support suggests improving fundamentals. Benedict reiterated his Outperform rating and $200 price target on Costco shares.
08/25/17
08/25/17
UPGRADE
Target $120

Buy
VMware upgraded to Buy on cloud transition acceleration at BofA/Merrill
As previously reported, Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Kash Rangan upgraded VMware (VMW) to Buy from Neutral, citing his belief the company will see through a transition of its business model and this trend will be accelerated by VMW Cloud on Amazon Web Services (AMZN). VMware's forward looking indicators reported with its Q2 report were stronger than expected, giving Rangan confidence that double-digit revenue growth can be sustained into next year and potentially longer, he tells investors. He raised his price target on VMware shares to $120 from $108.
08/25/17
08/25/17
DOWNGRADE
Target $235

Market Perform
Ulta Beauty downgraded on slowing market, rising competition at BMO Capital
As previously reported, BMO Capital analyst Shannon Coyne downgraded Ulta Beauty (ULTA) to Market Perform from Outperform, citing the slowing beauty market, department stores becoming more promotional and rolling out loyalty programs better targeted toward beauty consumers and Amazon (AMZN) gaining ground in the mass market and potentially gaining access to prestige brands. The analyst, who thinks the Ulta story is "shifting to a market share war from market expansion," lowered his price target on Ulta shares to $235 from $345.
08/25/17
RHCO
08/25/17
NO CHANGE
RHCO
Kroger, Sprouts unlikely to be hurt much by Amazon move, says SunTrust
After Amazon (AMZN) announced that it would cut Whole Foods (WFM) prices and supermarket stocks dropped, SunTrust analyst David Magee says he doesn't expect Kroger (KR) and Sports (SFM) to be significantly hurt by the move in the near-term. He says that Kroger's customer base is distinct from that of Whole Foods and only 10% of the company's stores are within three miles of a Whole Foods store. Additionally, he says that most of Kroger's products are "conventional," differentiating it from Whole Foods. Sprout's outlook is tied much more "to the broader pricing environment," while its current initiatives are gaining traction, Magee stated. He says, however, that Whole Foods' move could negative impact Natural Grocers (NGVC), "which does emphasize organic and has store overlap" with Whole Foods, according to the analyst.
LRLCY L'Oreal
$42.55

0.31 (0.73%)

07/25/17
JEFF
07/25/17
INITIATION
JEFF
Hold
L'Oreal initiated with a Hold at Jefferies
Jefferies analyst Martin Deboo started L'Oreal with a Hold rating and EUR 205 price target.
07/20/17
STFL
07/20/17
DOWNGRADE
STFL
Hold
L'Oreal downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel
Stifel analyst Mark Astrachan downgraded L'Oreal based on valuation.
02/17/17
RBCM
02/17/17
NO CHANGE
Target $105
RBCM
Outperform
Edgewell Personal Care remains takeout target, says RBC Capital
After Kraft Heinz (KHC) confirmed it had approached Unilever (UN, UL) with a merger proposal, RBC Capital analyst Nik Modi says the news come as a surprise, but does not warrant a change in his Edgewell Personal Care (EPC) takeout thesis. The analyst reiterates an Outperform rating on the latter's shares, with a $105 price target, on improving margin and revenue profile and the prospects of a takeout in the next 12-16 months, with Unilever as one of the more likely buyers. Other potential suitors include Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Beiersdorf, Henkel, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Church & Dwight (CHD), L'Oreal (LRLCY), and Kao, he adds.
01/11/17
UBSW
01/11/17
UPGRADE
UBSW
Buy
L'Oreal upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS
M Macy's
$21.01

0.32 (1.55%)

06/21/17
GDHS
06/21/17
NO CHANGE
GDHS
Nike-Amazon pact yet another department store headwind, says Gordon Haskett
Gordon Haskett analyst noted the reports of Nike (NKE) nearing a deal to sell directly on Amazon (AMZN), which he said wouldn't impact trends overnight but would represent another headwind for department stores, particularly J.C. Penney (JCP) and Kohl's (KSS), where the brand has a larger penetration than at Macy's (M) and Nordstrom (JWN). He keeps an Accumulate rating on Nordstrom, a Hold rating on Macy's and Reduce rating on both J.C. Penney and Kohl's.
06/07/17
GSCO
06/07/17
NO CHANGE
Target $25
GSCO
Neutral
Macy's price target lowered to $25 from $28 at Goldman Sachs
Goldman analyst Lindsay Drucker Mann lowerd Macy's price target to $25 from $28 to reflect weaker margin trends and operating earnings following the company's Investor Day. The analyst is encouraged by the detail around strategic initiatives and has confidence in -3-4% FY17 comp guidance range. Shares are Neutral rated.
05/12/17
COWN
05/12/17
NO CHANGE
Target $29
COWN
Market Perform
Macy's financial modeling worrisome, says Cowen
Cowen analyst Oliver Chen said the rapid transformation of consumers' shopping preferences presents ongoing challenges to Macy's and other retailers. He said the company needs to reinvent promotional techniques that currently are yielding poor store traffic and higher markdowns. Chen said from a financial modeling perspective he is worried, leading him to maintain his Market Perform rating on Macy's shares and cut his price target to $29 from $44.
08/11/17
UBSW
08/11/17
NO CHANGE
Target $21
UBSW
Neutral
Macy's Q2 better than feared, guidance hurts confidence, says UBS
UBS analyst Michael Binetti said Macy's reported Q2 results that were better than feared, but its second half guidance has damaged the confidence that its positive trends are sustainable. The analyst lowered his estimates and his price target to $21 from $23. Binetti maintained his Neutral rating on Macy's shares.
SBH Sally Beauty
$17.86

-0.16 (-0.89%)

04/24/17
KEYB
04/24/17
DOWNGRADE
KEYB
Sector Weight
Sally Beauty downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc
KeyBanc analyst Jason Gere downgraded Sally Beauty to Sector Weight and lowered estimates saying risk/reward is less attractive. The analyst said the company remains challenged by the current retail environment and could be over-stored with its 3,000 store US footprint concentrated in strip centers, the upcoming loyalty program overhaul could be disruptive near-term, and has concerns over management's strategic plan for operations.
05/05/17
BARD
05/05/17
NO CHANGE
Target $26
BARD
Outperform
Sally Beauty shares worth another look, says Baird
Baird analyst Mark Altschwager noted Sally Beauty reported above consensus earnings with improved gross margins and lower SG&A. He said there was a comp shortfall at both the retail and professional divisions as a weak spending environment drove the downside. He believes, however, that pricing and sourcing initiatives are bearing fruit and the company is realizing its cost savings goals, leading him to increase his estimates. Altschwager likes the risk/reward at current levels and reiterated his Outperform rating and $26 price target on Sally Beauty shares.
06/02/17
JEFF
06/02/17
INITIATION
Target $18
JEFF
Hold
Sally Beauty initiated with a Hold at Jefferies
Jefferies analyst Stephanie Wissink started Sally Beauty with a Hold rating and $18 price target.
07/06/17
DADA
07/06/17
INITIATION
Target $23
DADA
Neutral
Sally Beauty initiated with a Neutral at DA Davidson
DA Davidson analyst Linda Bolton Weiser initiated Sally Beauty with a Neutral and a $23 price target due to weak first half 2017 sales, second half 2017 is a "show me" situation, and only slightly favorable risk/reward.

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NKE

Nike

$53.79

0.73 (1.38%)

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ADP

ADP

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UTX

United Technologies

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  • 14

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  • 26

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LGL

LGL Group

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BBW

Build-A-Bear

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MCD

McDonald's

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03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
Barclays

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  • 24

    Oct

XOM

Exxon Mobil

$83.21

0.1 (0.12%)

12:20
10/23/17
10/23
12:20
10/23/17
12:20
Options
11.7K Exxon Mobile Jan 82.5 - Mar 87.5 call spreads bought for $1.40 »

11.7K Exxon Mobile Jan…

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
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03/06/13
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03/06/13
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  • 27

    Oct

$NSD

NASDAQ Market Internals

12:17
10/23/17
10/23
12:17
10/23/17
12:17
Technical Analysis
NASDAQ market internals summary »

Volume is average for…

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
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$NYE

NYSE Market Internals

12:16
10/23/17
10/23
12:16
10/23/17
12:16
Technical Analysis
NYSE market internals summary »

Volume is below average…

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
Barclays

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12:15
10/23/17
10/23
12:15
10/23/17
12:15
General news
Treasury Option Action: some "call fly" demand »

Treasury Option Action:…

SAGE

Sage Therapeutics

$63.50

0.58 (0.92%)

12:10
10/23/17
10/23
12:10
10/23/17
12:10
Options
Sizable ratio spread in Sage Therapeutics »

Sizable ratio spread in…

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
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Citigroup
03/06/13
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VLKAY

Volkswagen

$35.00

-0.25 (-0.71%)

12:08
10/23/17
10/23
12:08
10/23/17
12:08
Periodicals
Volkswagen receives approval from U.S regulators for SUV fix, Reuters says »

U.S and California…

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
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RMBS

Rambus

$13.70

0.12 (0.88%)

12:05
10/23/17
10/23
12:05
10/23/17
12:05
Technical Analysis
Technical Earnings Preview: Rambus in bullish price channel ahead of news »

The shares have been…

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
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03/06/13
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  • 23

    Oct

  • 07

    Dec

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