The Empire State headline fell slightly
The Empire State headline fell slightly in September to 24.4 from a 3-year high of 25.2 in August, yet every survey component rose except the workweek, and the ISM-adjusted Empire State popped to a 6-year high of 57.0 from 54.2 in August, 53.3 in July, and 56.2 in June. The robust trajectory for producer sentiment appears to be extending into September, and analysts expect a further lift to these figures into Q4 from hurricane repair. Analysts expect a September Philly Fed downtick to a still-robust 18.0 from 18.9 in August, and 19.5 in July, versus a 33-year high of 43.3 in February. The ISM-adjusted average of the major sentiment surveys will likely remain at the high end of the lofty 55-56 range seen since the 57 cycle-high readings in February and March, following a steep climb in the average from 50 in 4 of the 5 months through September. The producer sentiment surveys are fluctuating around historically high levels, with little of the expected moderation from Q1 peaks for most indicators.