Negative Harvey impact on Atlanta Fed's Q3 GDPNow estimate
Negative Harvey impact on Atlanta Fed's Q3 GDPNow estimate seems the mostly likely outcome when the data is released shortly. The data was upgraded to 3.0% from 2.9% (4.0% initial forecast) a week ago, but seems destined to follow the croud lower after today's round of subdued reports. At Action, analysts've lowered our estimate to 2.6% from 3.0% (before rebounding to 3.0% in Q4) and Barclay's just lowered their call to 2.0% from 2.8% as the gravitational pull of economic inertia checks U.S. growth once again to the 2.0% post-crisis average, and Irma hasn't even been factored in fully yet. It would appear that Fed "gradualism" will be alive and well next week. for more detail.