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FSLR

First Solar

$48.85

-0.01 (-0.02%)

, SPWR

SunPower

$7.86

-0.51 (-6.09%)

11:24
09/21/17
09/21
11:24
09/21/17
11:24

Before the Move: Watch First Solar, others ahead of ITC decision

With an ITC Section 201 decision expected tomorrow, JPMorgan analyst Paul Coster commented on potential outcomes, pointing out that solar stocks seem to already price in a tariff on imports and that he prefers First Solar (FSLR) since the company's thin-film panels are not subject to the trade petition. Meanwhile, his peer at Deutsche Bank argued that First Solar shares can hit $110 if ITC finds "injury." ITC SECTION 201 DECISION: Back in April, the U.S.-based solar manufacturer Suniva filed a petition for global safeguards with the U.S. International Trade Commission, or ITC. Suniva requests the imposition of tariffs on solar cells and the establishment of a minimum price for solar modules imported into the U.S. The petition was filed under Section 201 of the Trade Act of 1974, which authorizes global safeguards investigations, also known as "escape clause" investigations. An initial determination is due by September 22. INJURY DETERMINATION: JPMorgan's Coster told investors this morning that he believes a determination of "injury" from the ITC would probably get a favorable reception by the U.S. Administration, leading to tariffs on imports. Further, the analyst pointed out that solar stocks already seem to price in a tariff, albeit of a magnitude that is not crippling to the China-based suppliers. The relevant solar stocks, therefore, could move significantly if no injury is found, or if injury is found and the penalty is more than 10c/watt, he contended. While he reiterated a Neutral rating on Canadian Solar (CSIQ), First Solar, and SunPower (SPWR), Coster said he prefers First Solar heading into the ITC decision since its thin-film panels are not subject to the trade petition. In a research note of his own, Deutsche Bank analyst Vishal Shah told investors that he sees upside in First Solar shares to $110 if the ITC finds injury. In the bull case where ITC finds injury and tariffs make standard multi-module prices stay at mid-40c and c-Si module prices also remain high, the analyst said he expects First Solar to extend an incremental 1GW S4 in 2018 and 2019, making shipments 3GW and 4.5GW, respectively. In this scenario, Shah sees 2018 earnings per share approaching $3 and 2019 earnings per share approaching $5. In the bear case, with no injury finding, for 2018, he assumes the company does not extend incremental 1GW S4 capacity and shipments decrease from his current model of 2.5GW to 2GW, while component margins remain weak at low teens in the first half of 2018. The analyst reiterated a Buy rating and $65 price target on First Solar's shares. OF NOTE: Also of note in the solar space today, Axiom analyst Gordon Johnson started JinkoSolar (JKS) with a Sell rating and $10 price target. In a research note titled "Earnings "Valentine's Day Massacre" Appears Set to Unfold Imminently," the analyst argues that consensus estimates are ignoring the "sizable risks" to JinkoSolar's earnings in the second half of 2017 and 2018. Johnson sees an "imminent earnings cliff" for legacy PV module vendors with manufacturing origins in China. PRICE ACTION: In morning trading, shares of First Solar have dropped 2% to $47.87, while Canadian Solar's stock has slipped fractionally to $15.96. Shares of SunPower also slid over 4% to $7.53 and Jinko is off its earlier lows to be back to nearly flat for the day. "Before the Move" is The Fly's recurring series of exclusive stories that identify potentially market moving events, along with analyst predictions, ahead of the news.

FSLR

First Solar

$48.85

-0.01 (-0.02%)

SPWR

SunPower

$7.86

-0.51 (-6.09%)

CSIQ

Canadian Solar

$16.02

-0.69 (-4.13%)

JKS

JinkoSolar

$26.13

-0.16 (-0.61%)

FSLR First Solar
$48.85

-0.01 (-0.02%)

09/15/17
DBAB
09/15/17
UPGRADE
Target $65
DBAB
Buy
First Solar upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank analyst Vishal Shah upgraded First Solar to Buy and raised his price target for the shares to $65 from $50. The provider of photovoltaic solar energy solutions closed yesterday up $1.60 to $48.43. Channel checks indicate that "robust" U.S. demand is driving module prices higher, Shah tells investors in a research note. He believes First Solor is likely to announce additional 1GW of series 4 capacity extension for next year as well as orders for series 6 modules sooner than most investors expect. He sees upside to near-term estimates for the company.
09/15/17
09/15/17
UPGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst upgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst upgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Dish (DISH) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citi with analyst Jason Bazinet saying the valuation seems fair following the recent weakness in the shares. 2. First Solar (FSLR) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank with analyst Vishal Shah saying channel checks indicate that "robust" U.S. demand is driving module prices higher. 3. Southwest (LUV) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan with analyst Jamie Baker saying the recent correction in Southwest shares makes for a "compelling" risk-to-reward profile. 4. Qualcomm (QCOM) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Northland with analyst Tom Sepenzis citing expectations for market share gains in 2018, particularly at the high end, as he sees the company and partner Himax (HIMX) as well positioned to become the "de facto leading 3D sensing solution" with Android manufacturers who follow the lead of Apple's (AAPL) new iPhone X. 5. Harsco (HSC) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus with analyst David Coleman saying cost cutting initiatives, returns on prior investments, and improving end market demand have resulted in above Street results in the first half of 2017. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
09/19/17
COKE
09/19/17
INITIATION
COKE
First Solar initiated with $72 fair value estimate at Coker Palmer
Coker Palmer analyst Brad Meikle initiated First Solar with a fair value estimate of $72 with an upside case of $97 per share and downside case of $32. The International Trade Commission on Friday will release its findings on whether there was damage done to U.S. crystalline solar manufacturers by overseas competitors, the analyst points out. He believes it is "extremely likely" that the ITC finds there were damages and that this is not priced into First Solar shares.
09/20/17
DBAB
09/20/17
NO CHANGE
Target $65
DBAB
Buy
First Solar shares can hit $110 if ITC finds injury, says Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank analyst Vishal Shah sees upside in First Solar shares to $110 should the International Trade Commission's section 201 outcome on Friday find injury. The stock in midday trading is down 66c to $48.20. His bull case includes tariffs and standard multi-module prices staying at mid 40c along with c-Si module prices also remaining high. In this scenario, First Solar can extend an incremental 1GW S4 in 2018 and 2019, making shipments of 3GW and 4.5GW, respectively, Shah tells investors in a research note. The analyst sees downside in the shares to around $40 should the ITC find no injury. He sees First Solar's risk/reward as favorable into Friday's ruling and keeps a Buy rating on the shares with a $65 price target.
SPWR SunPower
$7.86

-0.51 (-6.09%)

04/17/17
AXIO
04/17/17
INITIATION
Target $18
AXIO
Buy
Canadian Solar rises after Axiom starts with a Buy
Shares of Canadian Solar (CSIQ) are higher in early trading after Axiom analyst Gordon Johnson initiated the stock with a Buy rating and an $18 price target, as previously reported by The Fly. Johnson sees Canadian Solar as having a unique level of "sellable, in-the-money," U.S., Chinese, and Japanese solar assets, leaving it positioned similarly to how First Solar (FSLR) and SunPower (SPWR) were in mid 2012 when those two had the same type of unique positioning relative to solar industry peers. From late June 2012 to the end of 2015, shares of First Solar and SunPower advanced 526% and 338%, respectively, far outpacing the gains of their industry peers, said Johnson, who now sees a similar set-up for Canadian Solar. In early trading, Canadian Solar shares have risen 63c, or about 5%, to $13.35.
09/08/17
MACQ
09/08/17
DOWNGRADE
MACQ
Neutral
SunPower downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie
Macquarie analyst Gurpreet Gujral downgraded SunPower to Neutral from Outperform with a $8.99 price target, down from $10.35. The analyst believes US solar PV demand will come under "serious" pressure if the Section 201 trade case proposal are implemented. Although it is difficult to speculate the outcome of the case, Gujral said prices across the solar value chain are firming and, if the duties are implemented, PV module prices could more than double, making many utility scale projects under development uneconomical.
08/24/17
AXIO
08/24/17
NO CHANGE
AXIO
JA Solar likely to report Q3 loss, says Axiom
Axiom analyst Gordon L Johnson III says his recent checks indicate that China and global prices for modules and cell dropped slightly last week, while spot prices for polysilicon and multi wafers used to make solar modules and cells rose sharply from July 12 to August 9 and have since been stable. As a result, the analyst calculates that companies which bought the raw materials at spot prices have seen their margins on solar cells fall to a record low -12.9%, while module makers who bought the raw materials at spot prices have margins of -3.7%, the lowest level since Axiom began tracking them. Given these trends, Johnson predicts that JA Solar will report a Q3 pretax loss of $10M and warns that the company's results could deteriorate further in Q4. Other publicly traded companies in the space include Canadian Solar (CSIQ), First Solar (FSLR), SunEdison (SUNEQ), SunPower (SPWR), Trina Solar (TSL) and Yingli Green Energy (YGE).
07/25/17
BOFA
07/25/17
NO CHANGE
BOFA
Solar sector may be bottoming, First Solar best positioned, says BofA/Merrill
BofA/Merrill analyst Krish Sankar believes the Solar sector may have bottomed in Q2 2017 with installs falling about 23% compared to Q2 2016 as last year's rush was driven by fears of an ITC expiration. Sankar believes global demand is set to increase 2% in 2017, followed by mid-to-high single digit growth going forward. His top solar pick heading into earnings is First Solar (FSLR), followed by Buy rated Veeco (VECO) in the energy efficiency/LED space. The analyst remains sidelined, until there is clarity on future sponsors, in SunPower (SPWR) and 8Point3 (CAFD).
CSIQ Canadian Solar
$16.02

-0.69 (-4.13%)

08/21/17
08/21/17
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Nike (NKE) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies, with analyst Randal Konik saying valuation is expensive and the competitive landscape could make share gains and margin expansion difficult. Konik added Adidas' (ADDYY) success in reviving its brand appeal in North America has had a clear impact on Nike shares. 2. Foot Locker (FL) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS and Finish Line (FINL) cut to Sell from Neutral by analyst Michael Binetti, who said Foot Locker's results were worse than the analyst expected and make it tougher to support a thesis that athletic retail will be able to sidestep the structural challenges of the broader sector. Binetti downgraded Finish Line based on the structural risks exposed by Foot Locker exposed in its Q2 report. 3. Barclays analyst Lydia Rainforth downgraded Total (TOT) and Repsol (REPYY) to Equal Weight from Overweight and Statoil (STO) and Eni SpA (E) to Underweight from Equal Weight citing relative valuation. 4. Canadian Solar (CSIQ) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays, with analyst Jon Windham saying it faces risks from the possible delay of project sales and pricing, soft investor demand for a J-REIT listing in the second half, and risks from the September 22 injury vote in the US ITC 201 trade case. 5. Infosys (INFY) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
08/21/17
LEHM
08/21/17
DOWNGRADE
Target $14
LEHM
Underweight
Canadian Solar downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
Barclays analyst Jon Windham downgraded Canadian Solar to Underweight following Q2 results saying it faces risks from the possible delay of project sales and pricing, soft investor demand for a J-REIT listing in the second half, and risks from the September 22 injury vote in the US ITC 201 trade case. Windham raised Canadian Solar's price target to $14 from $12.
08/15/17
COKE
08/15/17
NO CHANGE
COKE
Sell
Coker Palmer calls JinkoSolar's capital market activity 'egregious'
JinkoSolar's (JKS) $200M mixed securities shelf filing this morning it its third secondary since the initial public offering, Coker Palmer writes in a research note. The company's capital market activity and spending are "egregious" and not helping the industry return to a more rationale pricing environment, the firm contends. Coker believes JinkoSolar is unlikely to generate any free cash flow in 2017/2018. It continues to recommend being long Canadian Solar (CSIQ) and short Jinko.
JKS JinkoSolar
$26.13

-0.16 (-0.61%)

09/21/17
AXIO
09/21/17
INITIATION
Target $10
AXIO
Sell
JinkoSolar initiated with a Sell at Axiom
Axiom analyst Gordon Johnson started JinkoSolar with a Sell rating and $10 price target. In a research note titled "Earnings "Valentine's Day Massacre" Appears Set to Unfold Imminently," the analyst argues that consensus estimates are ignoring the "sizable risks" to JinkoSolar's earnings in the second half of 2017 and 2018. Johnson sees an "imminent earnings cliff" for legacy PV module vendors with manufacturing origins in China.
09/21/17
09/21/17
INITIATION

On The Fly: Top five analyst initiations
Catch up on today's top five analyst initiations with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Netflix (NFLX) initiated with a Buy at Buckingham. 2. Paycom (PAYC) initiated with an Outperform at Northland. 3. JinkoSolar (JKS) initiated with a Sell at Axiom. 4. Ares Capital (ARCC) initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer. 5. Versum Materials (VSM) initiated with a Hold at Stifel. This list is just a portion of The Fly's analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
08/22/17
FBCO
08/22/17
DOWNGRADE
Target $25
FBCO
Neutral
JinkoSolar downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse analyst Maheep Mandloi downgraded JinkoSolar to Neutral and raised his price target to $25 from $20 saying current valuation does not reflect oversupply in 2018+. The analyst raised Jinko estimates well above consensus as demand improves and higher efficiency products but said investors are too "exuberant" on demand growth.

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