Canada GDP preview
Canada GDP preview: GDP is expected to improve 0.1% m/m in July after the 0.3% gain in July. The report is due out Friday. The 0.2% dip in retail shipment volumes added to the mixed backdrop for the July GDP report. A 2.1% surge in wholesale shipment volumes limited the risk for a flat reading in July GDP, but the dip in retail volumes puts our 0.1% GDP estimate on a bit less solid footing. Manufacturing shipment volumes fell 1.4% in July. Housing starts grew 4.5% to a 222.0k pace in July from 212.5k in June. Hence, the contribution from construction production should be positive. The outlook for mining, oil and gas production is mixed. Energy export values fell 3.7% m/m in July. However, the manufacturing report's petro and coal shipments measure did edge up 0.6% in value after the hefty 7.0% drop in June. A 0.1% rise in July GDP would leave the measure on track for a 2.5% pace in Q3 (q/q, saar) which analysts expect for the separate quarterly measure. The BoC estimated a 2.0% pace for Q3 GDP. The GDP estimates from the July MPR, of course, look likely to undergo substantial upward revision after GDP outpaced expectations in Q1 and Q2. View the preview.