The U.S. ISM surged to a 13-year high of 60.8
The U.S. ISM surged to a 13-year high of 60.8 from a 6-year high of 58.8 in August, versus a lower 56.3 in July and 57.8 in June. The ISM and other sentiment surveys are rising sharply with the hurricane rebuild from already high levels, after showing little of the expected moderation from lofty peaks at the start of 2017. The boost from Harvey and Irma should extend into year-end. The ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys is rising to a 58 new cycle-high in September from already-lofty 55-56 figures since the prior cycle-high of 57 in February and March. The average has climbed steeply from just 50 in 4 of the 5 months through September of 2016. Analysts saw a 36 cycle-low in March of 2009. The jobs index also rose, to a 6-year high of 60.3 from a prior 6-year high of 59.9 in August and 55.2 in July, leaving upside risk for our 120k September nonfarm payroll estimate aside from the big payroll hit analysts expect from hurricane Irma.